#4月核心PCE将公布#

The core PCE will be revealed; how much longer can this inflation porridge simmer?
When CPI is the loud neighbor and PPI is the silent factory worker, core PCE is like the nice guy in a suit going to work - the one who truly decides the overall situation. This Thursday, the April core PCE will "get straight to the point" to see if this pot of inflation porridge is thick or thin.
The market generally predicts that the core PCE will fall to 0.2% month-on-month, but if the core annual rate remains strong at 2.8%, it indicates that "the porridge is cooked, but the rice grains are still hard." The Federal Reserve's obsession with interest rate cuts can still only be expressed in the meeting minutes as self-talk.
Below expectations: Gold cheers, bond market celebrates, tech stocks feast; above expectations: The dollar roars, crypto turns, NASDAQ turns green. The moment traders hit enter, it's basically a gamble: is it a rebound or a "re-ignition."
The Federal Reserve actually doesn't want to be the bad guy; it just fears that inflation will be "undercooked." A core PCE that is lukewarm is the most troublesome—too high is hard to serve, too low risks cooling public opinion. The chart in front of Powell is more complicated than Wall Street's psychological tests.