Can Bitcoin break the "conference curse" this week? | CoinDesk JAPAN

• The annual Bitcoin conference, which has become a tradition in recent years and will be held in Las Vegas this year, is expected to feature many announcements.
• However, historically, Bitcoin tends to decline in the short term after such conferences.
• As institutional investors' interest grows, the market cautiously hopes that this pattern will be broken in 2025.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at a price close to its all-time high of over $109,000 ahead of the Bitcoin conference taking place in Las Vegas this week. However, traders and analysts are watching closely to see if there is a tendency for performance to deteriorate after such events.

According to data compiled by Galaxy Research from the past five Bitcoin conferences, from San Francisco in 2019 to Nashville in 2024, it has become clear that Bitcoin has generally underperformed during these events, particularly after they concluded.

For example, during the 2019 event, there was a 10% decline during the conference, followed by a 24% drop the following month. Similarly, at the conference held in Miami in 2022, there was a 1% decline during the conference, and then a sharp 29% drop the following month. However, all of these occurred during a bear market.

However, even in a bullish market year like 2023, the price movement was flat or slightly negative.

At the recent conference held in Nashville last July, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump promised the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which recorded a 4% increase during the session, but immediately afterwards saw a sharp drop of 20%.

This year's conference, which will be attended by current Vice President J.D. Vance, could be very different due to the increased participation of institutional investors. That said, due to the accumulation of unfavorable historical data, Bitcoin faces psychological hurdles as well as technical ones. The week of the conference has become a time to "sell on the news."

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