The four-year cycle has been broken, how to invest in Crypto Assets in the new normal?

1. Bitcoin Super Cycle: Retail Investors Exit, Decade-long Bull Trend Becomes the Norm* Core Change: BTC has transformed from a speculative target for retail investors to an asset for institutional allocation. The entry of Wall Street, publicly traded companies, and ETFs has led to a large-scale flow of retail chips towards institutions, changing the price discovery mechanism and volatility characteristics.

• Trend Outlook: BTC may enter a slow bull market for more than ten years, with annualized returns stabilizing at 20-30%. Daily volatility is decreasing, similar to tech stocks. Retail investors face dual pressure from time and opportunity costs, making it difficult to endure institutional long-term holding strategies.
• Price Prediction: Retail investors find it hard to determine the upper limit of BTC and should pay attention to institutional funding logic.

2. MEME Attention Short Wave Cycle: From Grassroots Carnival to Professional Competition* Essence: MEME is a speculative tool for "instant gratification," driven by emotions, funds, and attention. From cat and dog culture to politics and AI concepts, MEME has formed an "emotional monetization" industry chain.

• Market Role: When funds are abundant, MEME is a playground for hot money; when funds are scarce, MEME becomes a safe haven for speculation.
• Challenge: The MEME market has shifted from a "slum paradise" to a "professional harvesting ground." Studios and large investors have entered the market, making it exponentially harder for retail investors to profit, and legendary stories are becoming increasingly rare.

3. Technological Narrative Leap Long Cycle: Bottom Fishing in the Valley of Death, 10x Potential in 3 Years* Characteristics: Layer2, ZK technology, AI infrastructure, etc. require a development cycle of 2-3 years or even longer, following the technology maturity curve rather than the market sentiment cycle.

• Investment Logic: Technology projects are often overvalued in the conceptual phase and undervalued in the "valley of death" phase, with value release showing non-linear leaps. Patient investors can position themselves in the "valley of death" to achieve excess returns.
• Difficulty: One must endure long waits and market ridicule, where technical judgment is crucial.

4. Innovative Short-term Hotspots: 1-3 Months Window Current Situation: Rapid rotation of small narratives such as RWA, DePIN, AI Agent, AI Infra, with a window period of only 1-3 months, reflecting the scarcity of market attention and the efficiency of capital seeking rent.

• Cycle Model: Concept validation → Fund probing → Amplification of public opinion → FOMO entry → Valuation overextension → Fund withdrawal. The best strategy is to enter during the "fund probing" stage and exit at the "FOMO peak."
• Potential: There are technical connections within small narratives, such as the MCP protocol of AI Infra and the A2A standard, which may reconstruct the underlying AI Agent. If small narratives interact to form a value closed loop, it could give rise to a super narrative similar to DeFi Summer, with AI infrastructure most likely to break through first.

Summary: Adapt to multi-period parallelism, find the right strategic positioning

• Bitcoin: Focus on institutional funding logic and adapt to the slow bull rhythm.
• MEME: Seize short-wave emotional opportunities, and be wary of specialized competition.
• Technical Narrative: In the "Death Valley" layout, patiently wait for the value explosion.
• Hot Spot: Quick in and out, grasp the 1-3 month window period, pay attention to potential narratives like AI Infra.

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