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Recent Trends: With easing geopolitical tensions, sustained institutional inflows, and improving market sentiment, BTC has shown strong upward momentum.
This Week’s Key Question: The market looks bullish, but the ATH remains a major resistance level.
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Will BTC enter the "ten thousand yuan tiered" pump? The next target is 160,000 USD.
On Monday, the cryptocurrency market continued to rebound slightly, with Bitcoin briefly touching an intraday high of $107,068, before retreating to around $102,105. According to data from CoinMarketCap, as of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $105,850, with a 24-hour volatility of less than 1%, and a 24-hour trading volume rising by 40% to $64.63 billion.
"Ten thousand yuan ladder rise" model
Some market observers pointed out that Bitcoin has shown an interesting "step-like" pattern in its recent pump.
Analyst Trader Tardigrade found that the BTC price rise follows a phased pattern, with each upward wave approximately around 10,000 dollars, and there is a brief pause after each rise. He mentioned the movements from 75,000 dollars to 85,000 dollars, then to 95,000 dollars, and recently to 105,000 dollars. After each jump, there is usually a period of relative calm and sideways consolidation lasting seven to ten days.
For traders, this pattern provides predictable opportunities to take profits or establish new positions. These consolidations can act as new support levels, indicating the willingness of buyers to re-enter the market. If this pattern continues, the next logical target could be $115,000, which is approximately 11% higher than the current price.
Tardigrade believes that the significance of the $100,000 mark is self-evident. This integer not only serves as an important psychological barrier but also forms strong technical support. It is worth noting that after a significant rise of 11% in early May, Bitcoin maintained a slight rise of 0.5% last week. This "slow bull" characteristic is healthier compared to severe fluctuations and is also easier to sustain.
160,000 USD target price
Looking further ahead, chart analyst CryptoCon has provided a more optimistic outlook through the "Golden Ratio Multiplier" model.
CryptoCon stated that the gold ratio multiplier model is one of the few technical indicators that accurately predicted the Bitcoin cycle top in April 2021.
According to the model analysis, by March 2024, the market has reached the middle top of this cycle, which means the market is likely to test the top again. Currently, the model indicates that the fifth-level target is pointing to $160,000 and continues to rise. This trend is quite similar to the bull market cycle of 2015-2017—the current stage corresponds to the position in April 2017, which is just before the main rising wave of the bull market. Historical experience shows that this slow accumulation phase often indicates the possibility of an accelerated rising market subsequently.
It is worth noting that while this technical analysis has certain reference value, the target price of 160,000 USD is based on the calculations of a specific model, and actual trends may be influenced by various factors. For ordinary investors, understanding this cyclical characteristic helps grasp the market rhythm, but more importantly, it is essential to manage risks well.
Willy Woo: BTC compound annual growth rate will stabilize at 8%
Analyst Willy Woo provides another perspective. He believes that Bitcoin has evolved from a highly volatile, explosive growth asset into a more mature financial instrument. Although many still view Bitcoin as a continuously soaring "magical unicorn," Woo points out that the era of annual growth rates exceeding 100% in 2017 is basically over. He marks 2020 as a key turning point when Bitcoin achieved "institutionalization," as companies and sovereign entities began to accumulate it.
As more institutional capital enters, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Bitcoin naturally declines from triple digits to around 30%-40% and continues to moderate. Woo attributes this to the increasing maturity of Bitcoin and its growing role as a store of capital. He emphasizes Bitcoin's status as a global financial asset, noting that it "will continue to absorb capital until it reaches its equilibrium point."
Looking further into the future, Woo predicts that Bitcoin's compound annual growth rate will eventually stabilize at a level consistent with broader economic trends, potentially around 8% annually (combining 5% long-term monetary expansion and 3% GDP growth). Although this growth rate may seem modest compared to earlier times, he remains confident in its long-term performance and concludes, "Before that (perhaps in 15-20 years), enjoy this journey, because very few publicly investable products can match Bitcoin's performance in the long run, even if Bitcoin's compound annual growth rate continues to decline."
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