Next week, the US stock market will face the test of earnings season. Will it have an impact on the crypto world?

The US capital market is experiencing a triple kill of stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange.
This week, the three major US stock indices fell sharply, with the S&P 500 index dropping 1.5% for the week, down more than 13% from its historical high in February; the US dollar index continued to decline after breaking through the psychological mark of 100; the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fluctuated widely. Next week, tech giants such as Google and Tesla are set to release their latest financial reports, and investors are trying to find market anchors from corporate earnings guidance.
The sell-off in the US stock market continues, and the dollar faces a crisis of trust.
After a brief rebound the previous week, US stocks have fallen back into a sell-off. The S&P 500 index dropped 1.5% this week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.66%, and the Nasdaq index decreased by 2.62%, with tech stocks leading the market decline.
Next week, the US stock market will face the test of earnings season. According to LSEG IBES data, the expected earnings growth rate for S&P 500 constituents in 2025 has been revised down from 14% at the beginning of the year to 9.2%. The market generally expects that as companies factor in tariff costs, earnings forecasts may continue to be revised downward.
The market is focused on the two tech giants, Tesla and Google. Despite the continuous rise in stock prices over the past two years, both Tesla and Google's stock prices have retracted by 17% and 11% respectively since March, impacted by uncertainties in tariff policies. Investors are eager to gain insights from the financial reports regarding the management's assessment of supply chain restructuring and cost transfer capabilities.
In addition, several companies such as Boeing, IBM, Merck, Intel, and Procter & Gamble will announce their earnings reports next week.
In terms of US Treasuries, after a significant rise in yields recently, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has fallen to 4.34% this week.
CITIC Securities believes that the recent sharp rise in the yield of the U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds may be related to overseas investors selling off and hedge funds closing positions. The underlying reason for the sell-off of U.S. Treasuries is the declining recognition of them as a safe-haven asset. In addition, the maturity scale of U.S. Treasuries will peak in the coming months, and interest payments will continue to exacerbate the financial burden on the U.S., which may lead to a decrease in market confidence in U.S. finances.
The decline of the US dollar has raised broader concerns. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index broke through the psychological barrier of 100 points last week, and over the past week, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index has fallen from 99.64 points at the beginning of the week to 99.38 points.
"Looking back at the previous times the dollar has fallen below 100 points, we find that when the trend is established, it is indeed difficult to reverse it in the short term." Wu Kaida, chief analyst of Tianfeng Research Strategy, believes that from a credit perspective, the dollar index falling below 100 points is the result of a gap in the "broad national credit" of the United States. This is intrinsically driven to the recent market performance of U.S. equities and Treasuries. From the perspective of supply and demand, the misalignment between "manufacturing reshoring" and "strong dollar" also suggests that the credit of the dollar is being challenged at a deeper level.
Gold prices hit a new high.
Currently, the "Panic Index" - the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) has fallen from a high of 60 to around 29, but it is still above its long-term median of 17.6. Market analysts believe that the "Panic Index" needs to return to the "10-20" range to confirm market stability, and the current level "suggests that turbulence lies ahead."
Risk aversion sentiment has driven gold prices to new highs. This week, COMEX gold futures rose over 2%, surpassing $3370 per ounce; London spot gold prices increased by more than 2%, with a rise of 25% over the past hundred days, marking the strongest performance since 2006.
Xingye Research believes that the core logic behind the current rise in gold is the ongoing issue with the US dollar's credit, which may even be further strengthening. At the beginning of April, gold experienced a rapid adjustment of 5% to 8%, and without further liquidity shocks, the probability of a significant adjustment occurring is low.
The JPY may benefit from risk aversion
Safe-haven trading has also boosted the yen's upward momentum, with the yen rising against the dollar from 0.6993 at the beginning of the week to 0.7033. According to a Goldman Sachs report, the high uncertainty of U.S. policies and the risk of economic recession are typically most favorable for the yen.
"Holding long positions in yen is a relatively safe choice when market sentiment is tense," wrote Goldman Sachs analysts in their report. Japan's relatively mild inflation and interest rate outlook are also unlikely to hinder further strengthening of the yen. Amid short-term downside risks in the global economy and markets, Goldman Sachs expects the yen to have a more tactical advantage compared to more cyclical currencies and the dollar.
In addition, after a period of consolidation at low levels, crude oil prices rebounded this week. WTI crude rose to $63.45 per barrel, and ICE Brent rose to $67.85 per barrel. Minsheng Securities believes that international oil prices are showing a rebound trend influenced by multiple factors: OPEC+ announced a new compensation production cut plan, involving a reduction of 4.572 million barrels per day, aimed at balancing market supply and demand; at the same time, the geopolitical situation remains tense, exacerbating market uncertainty.
Putin announces a temporary ceasefire of the Russian military during Easter.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Russian President Putin ordered a temporary ceasefire for the Russian military on the occasion of Orthodox Easter on the 19th.
According to the information released on the social media account of the Russian President on that day, Putin said during a meeting with Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Gerasimov, that on the occasion of Easter on April 20, the Russian military will cease all combat operations from 6 PM on the 19th to midnight on the 21st. The Russian side hopes that Ukraine will follow suit.
Putin also pointed out that the Russian military must be prepared to "repel any actions by the enemy that may violate the ceasefire, provocations, and any offensive actions."
Putin stated that the situation on the battlefield contact line is clear and is developing in a direction favorable to the Russian army, which is confidently advancing step by step.
Glamimov stated during the meeting that the Russian army is completing its final control over the Kursk region, while the Ukrainian army's attempts to enter the Belgorod region have been thwarted by the Russian army.
In addition, on the 19th, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced on social media that Russia and Ukraine each transferred 246 captured personnel to the other side that day. The Russian side also transferred 31 injured prisoners of war to Ukraine, in exchange for the release of 15 injured Russian soldiers held by Ukraine.
Zelensky suggested extending the ceasefire to 30 days.
According to CCTV news, Ukrainian President Zelensky stated on social media on the 19th local time that Russia has not responded to the proposal for a comprehensive and unconditional ceasefire for 30 days for 39 consecutive days. If Russia suddenly expresses a willingness to join the framework of a comprehensive and unconditional ceasefire at this moment, Ukraine will respond in kind—however Russia acts, Ukraine will respond accordingly. If a comprehensive ceasefire is truly achieved, Ukraine proposes to extend the ceasefire period until after Easter on April 20. This will test Russia's true intentions, as 30 hours is insufficient to establish genuine trust measures, while 30 days may create an opportunity for peace.
Zelensky emphasized that, according to the latest report from the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russian military assault operations are still ongoing in certain areas of the front line, and their artillery fire has not ceased. The Ukrainian military is always on high alert, implementing proportional countermeasures, and every Russian shell will receive a full response.
In addition, Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian President's Office, announced on the evening of the 19th that Ukraine needs an unconditional comprehensive ceasefire from Russia, and Ukraine will respond to silence with silence, and to a ceasefire with a ceasefire. Yermak believes that if a ceasefire can truly be achieved now, it should be extended beyond April 20, and Russia should permanently cease fire to end the conflict.
Iranian Foreign Minister: The third round of talks between Iran and the US will be held on the 26th in Oman.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported on the 19th that Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated after the conclusion of the second round of indirect talks between Iran and the U.S. held in Rome, Italy, that the next round of indirect talks will take place in Oman on the 26th.
According to reports, Alagzi responded to reporters' questions regarding the content of the discussions, saying: "We have successfully reached a clearer consensus on some principles and goals, and agreed to move the negotiations to the next stage."
Alagzi said that based on the progress of negotiations, the technical teams of both sides will start expert-level negotiations on the 23rd, "experts will delve into the details and develop a framework for the agreement." The third round of indirect talks will be held in Oman on the 26th, where both sides will "assess the experts' work results and evaluate whether an agreement can be reached."
Alagzi emphasized that the core of the negotiations is the nuclear issue, and Iran maintains this position. Apart from establishing trust in Iran's peaceful nuclear program and lifting sanctions against Iran, the theme of the negotiations will not be any other content. So far, the U.S. side has adhered to this "framework" in the negotiations.
The spokesperson of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Baghaei, posted on social media on the 19th that Iran and the United States held effective indirect talks under the auspices of the Omani Foreign Minister on that day, stating that "the atmosphere of the talks was constructive." Both sides agreed to continue indirect consultations on technical matters in a few days, and the next round of talks will be held on the 26th.
According to reports from Italian media, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Grossi, stated during a media interview in Rome on the 19th that the US-Iran talks have opened up new possibilities, but the process will not be easy and requires the involvement of international organizations; otherwise, any agreement is merely "a good wish."
Iran and the United States held indirect talks in Muscat, the capital of Oman, on April 12. This is the first formal negotiation between the U.S. and Iran since the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal during President Trump's first term in May 2018.