Encryption Battle: After FBI Raids Polymarket Founder, Competitor Kalshi Buys KOL to Influence Public Opinion?

Author: Pirate Wires

Compiled by Felix, PANews

On November 13th local time, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) raided the New York residence of Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, and seized his phone and electronic devices. The FBI investigation focuses on whether Polymarket operates as an unlicensed commodity exchange.

But after this incident, it seems that it is not just a matter of Compliance or not, it even involves commercial competition. According to the US media Pirate Wires, Kalshi funded KOL hinted that its competitor Polymarket and CEO Shayne Coplan were engaged in illegal activities. The following is the details of the content.

According to insiders and screenshots received, on November 13th at 6:00 am, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan's SoHo residence was raided. Polymarket's competitor Kalshi paid KOLs on social media to spread the news of the raid and promote allegations of illegal activities by Shayne and Polymarket.

Other screenshots provided by insiders seem to show that after the raid, KOLs who posted negative content about Shayne and Polymarket discussed their paid cooperation with Kalshi. One insider said that just a few days after the raid, a third party related to Kalshi paid him $3,500 to write an 'attack article' about Polymarket.

In a chat screenshot (see the figure below), a Kalshi employee requested former NFL wide receiver Antonio Brown, who has 2.2 million X followers, to release specific information about the ambush inspection.

Kalshi's rise team member Keaton Inglis asked Antonio Brown in the screenshot: 'Hey, Antonio Brown, are you planning to comment on this matter with 'This n**** seems guilty'?' He seems to be referring to a post by CJ Pearson implying Shayne's corruption (archived link). Keaton Inglis's colleague and Chief of Staff of Kalshi, Brendan Beckhardt, added, 'Let's start acting.'

On November 15th, Antonio Brown quoted CJ Pearson's tweet (archived link) and wrote, "This nigga seems guilty..."

On the same day, a third-party company related to Kalshi offered $3,500 to Gateway Pundit journalist Elijah Schaffer (with 772,000 followers) to write a "hot article" promoting the idea that Polymarket and Shayne were involved in criminal activities. Elijah Schaffer revealed to media outlet Pirate Wires over the phone that he rejected the proposal.

Other screenshots show that in the days following the FBI raid on Shayne's apartment, several KOLs pushed for anti-Polymarket rhetoric and discussed their paid partnership with Kalshi.

One of the screenshots shows a representative of Clown World (with 2.8 million followers) discussing a paid cooperation with Kalshi. On the second day of the raid, November 14th, the account posted (archive link): 'Someone similar to SBF was raided by the FBI for an illegal betting scheme.' He was referring to Shayne. Since the election, Clown World has posted multiple other content related to Kalshi (archive link).

Another screenshot shows Arynne Wexler, a Miami influencer with over 67,000 followers, discussing her 'trades' with Kalshi at the end of October. On November 14th, Arynne Wexler released a video (file link) about this raid, pointing out that trading on Polymarket is illegal in the US, while 'Kalshi has a license to operate in the US', and encouraging her fans to 'check the platforms you use to make sure they are legal in the US.' Like Clown World, Arynne Wexler also released other content related to Kalshi before the election (file link).

If these pieces of information are true, these accusations will reveal a behind-the-scenes battle between two companies for dominance in the US prediction market. Kalshi pays a large social media account to secretly orchestrate a PR campaign on its behalf, without disclosing any apparent conflicts of interest.

According to Bloomberg, the raid on Shayne Apartments is related to an investigation by the US Department of Justice. In a settlement protocol reached with CFTC in 2022, Polymarket was banned from accepting trades from US users without prior approval to operate as a designated contract market (DCM), and paid a fine of $1.4 million. Polymarket currently geoblocks US visitors attempting to create an account; it is currently unclear whether the US Department of Justice's investigation involves users bypassing geoblocking.

After obtaining CFTC approval (i.e. becoming a DCM in 2020), Kalshi launched its platform in 2021, offering various non-political event contracts. In 2023, CFTC rejected Kalshi's application to allow users to trade congressional control contracts. The company sued the agency over the decision, and in September 2024, a district court ruled in favor of Kalshi. In October of last year, a circuit court rejected the CFTC's emergency stay of the ruling, effectively allowing Kalshi to offer contracts related to congressional control and other political topics.

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan declined to comment on the matter. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, Keaton Inglis, Antonio Brown, Arynne Wexler, and Clown World did not respond to requests for comment.

Related reading: From the FBI raid on Polymarket founder to the death of Peanut, PolitiFi, a MEME-like coin, is being hyped.