Summer 2025 Bitcoin: A Must-See

After a tumultuous start in 2025, Bitcoin has reignited its upward momentum, breaking through the six-figure mark again, reminding investors why they were able to weather the fluctuations. However, with momentum returning, a familiar saying has resurfaced: "Sell in May and go away." This investment adage is traditionally associated with the stock market but is now also mentioned within the Bitcoin community. So, does this strategy hold up in the current market? Let's delve into the seasonal trends, historical performance, and on-chain data to determine whether exiting now is a wise strategy or if it could mean missing out on the biggest opportunity of this cycle.

Re-evaluating the "Sell in May, Stay Away" Argument

This investment strategy originates from traditional finance, suggesting to exit the market in May and return in November, as the historical performance during the summer months is usually weak. The seasonal chart for Bitcoin does indeed show that the summer months (, especially from June to September ), often perform poorly. However, broader performance data reveals a more nuanced story, particularly in the Bitcoin market.

Historically, the average returns in the summer months are lower.

When applying this strategy to Bitcoin, the main basis is the years 2014, 2018, and 2022 when Bitcoin experienced deep, prolonged bear markets. In those years, the summer months' returns undoubtedly performed poorly. But what if we exclude these bear market years from the data set?

Performance after Excluding Bear Market

When the bear market years are excluded, Bitcoin's average return turns positive in every month ( including June to September ) Even Bitcoin's worst performing month in history, September, saw a slight profit on average, reaching +0.37%. The average return in October was as high as 26%, making it one of the best months in Bitcoin's history.

After excluding bear market years, the average return for each month is positive.

This reversal completely undermines the argument for a summer exit. The strategy only seems reasonable when impacted by a deep bear market cycle. In a bull market or neutral years, summer has significant rise potential.

The True Cost of Exiting in May

The compound return analysis vividly illustrates this point. Based on historical monthly performance, if you had invested $100 starting in 2012 and held on to ( continuously including summer ), your compound returns would now exceed $2 billion.

From the perspective of compound returns, the "May exit" strategy performed far worse than continuous holding.

But if you exit every May and avoid June to October, your final capital will only be $112 million, with returns nearly 18 times lower. Even if you only avoid June to September and return in October, the return will still drop significantly to $536 million, which is only a quarter of the returns from holding continuously. Missing the summer means missing the exponential effect of Bitcoin's compound growth.

Will this summer be different?

From an on-chain perspective, especially the MVRV Z-score, Bitcoin's structure remains healthy and has yet to reach typical cycle top levels. The current market pattern indicates that Bitcoin still has considerable room for rise, and if the rhythm of this cycle is similar to previous bull markets, the actual top may not appear until October or later.

The current MVRV Z-score of Bitcoin indicates that this cycle is far from reaching its peak.

Abandoning positions now based on the expectation of typical seasonal weakness not only contradicts the data but may also lead to investors being pushed out of the market during the most explosive phase of the 2025 cycle.

Conclusion

Although seasonal patterns should not be completely ignored, they must be analyzed in conjunction with the context, especially for macro-driven assets like Bitcoin. Bull market cycles, liquidity flows, global economic conditions, and investor behavior are far more important than the months on the calendar.

The cycle of Bitcoin is primarily driven by supply and demand, and now, the summer of 2025 is likely to become a frenzy period for Bitcoin. Historical patterns, momentum, and market structure dynamics all point to strong rising potential in the fourth quarter. Investors should not exit based on seasonal clichés, but should closely monitor on-chain and macro indicators, focusing on long-term positioning.