Apollo Co-Founder Thomas Fahrer Dismisses 2021 Double Top Concerns in Bitcoin Markets and Highlights the New Era of ETF Demand Treasury Allocations and State-Level Bitcoin Reserves

Thomas Fahrer, co-founder of Apollo, has dismissed concerns comparing the 2021 Bitcoin double top to the current market cycle. He emphasized that today’s environment is driven by institutional-grade infrastructure, such as spot Bitcoin ETFs and treasury-level allocations. According to Fahrer, the 2021 bull run was distorted by speculative leverage, unsustainable models like the Luna collapse, and off-exchange trading practices. In contrast, the current setup is structurally sound and backed by transparent, regulated inflows. This shift reflects a maturing asset class, as Bitcoin becomes a viable macro hedge for governments, corporations, and public pension funds alike.

Bitcoin ETF Demand Signals a New Phase for Bitcoin Adoption

Fahrer points to the “systematic ETF bid” as the core differentiator between now and 2021. At the time, Bitcoin’s surge was driven by retail exuberance and shadow leverage, evident in the collapse of Terra Luna and the eventual bankruptcy of FTX. Today, however, BlackRock, Fidelity, and other asset managers have introduced Bitcoin ETFs that ensure direct Bitcoin purchases. This demand is verifiable on-chain and institutional-grade.

Moreover, treasury allocations to Bitcoin have grown rapidly. Public companies like MicroStrategy have led the charge, but now private firms and smaller-cap corporations are adopting the model. Treasury Bitcoin reserves now exceed $11 billion globally. This trend marks a seismic shift in how Bitcoin is perceived—not merely as a speculative asset but as a long-term store of value. This evolution coincides with rising interest among states and municipalities to use Bitcoin as a sovereign reserve strategy.

From State Bitcoin Reserves to Macro Strategic Hedges

State-level interest in Bitcoin is no longer a fringe development. U.S. states like Texas and Wyoming have introduced legislation or pilot programs exploring Bitcoin reserves as part of their financial contingency plans. Internationally, El Salvador set the precedent, but now jurisdictions like Bhutan and even smaller European territories are following suit. These governments aim to hedge against currency devaluation and maintain fiscal sovereignty in a multipolar world. Fahrer asserts that Bitcoin’s use as a reserve asset reflects macro prudence rather than crypto enthusiasm. This new dimension gives the current market a stability absent from the speculative boom of 2021. It also supports long-term price floors.

Bitcoin Market Maturity Renders Old Patterns Obsolete

The assumption that Bitcoin ETFs must mimic 2021’s double top structure ignores the deep infrastructural and macroeconomic changes now in play. With regulated ETF flows, corporate treasury participation, and sovereign Bitcoin experimentation, the asset is no longer subject to purely cyclical retail narratives. This new environment creates firmer demand bases, diversified holding patterns, and resilient on-chain metrics. As Thomas Fahrer puts it, “This isn’t just a rally. This is Bitcoin’s institutional era.” He sees the evolving market as a signal of structural maturity, not a repeat of a speculative bubble.

What’s Next: A Bitcoin-Backed Financial Order?

With treasury allocations increasing and sovereign states testing Bitcoin ETF reserves, we may be entering a phase where Bitcoin acts as digital collateral in global finance. Fahrer believes that if ETFs continue their current trajectory, Bitcoin could surpass $150,000 in this cycle, without the volatility of past parabolic blow-offs. As monetary systems evolve and geopolitical tensions rise, Bitcoin’s decentralized, programmable nature makes it uniquely fit for the future. Institutional validation has arrived. The next frontier is macroeconomic integration.