Japan's bond market sounds the alarm! The ten-year Interest Rate hits a 25-year high, and life insurance giants face unrealized losses of 3.6 trillion yen, raising concerns of a repeat of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.

Frequent warnings in the US and Japanese treasury bond markets: the US "Big America Act" has exacerbated fiscal deficits and debt pressures, the weak auction of Japanese long-term bonds has triggered huge potential losses for financial institutions, and global fiscal sustainability and interest rate risks have aroused great concern in the market. (Synopsis: Rich dad shouts: Early warning that the crash is coming!) It's not too late to buy bitcoin and gold, I'm sure BTC will exceed $1 million in ten years) (Background supplement: U.S. stocks hit the rich dad shouting "I said it a long time ago": buy bitcoin, gold, silver to save your life) The government bond markets of the world's two major economies, the United States and Japan, have recently sounded the alarm synchronously, highlighting that global fiscal sustainability and interest rate risks are rising significantly, and this trend may have a profound impact on the economic pattern and investment strategy in the next few years. U.S. fiscal alarm bells worsen and bond markets come under significant pressure The "Big America Act" promoted by US President Trump is expected to add an additional $3.8 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, and the outside world jokingly calls the "BBB Act" similar to the rating of junk-rated bonds, ironically reflecting a dangerous fiscal turn. The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the debt-to-GDP ratio will climb from the current 98% to 125%, and as the 10-year US Treasury yield rises above 4.5%, and the 30-year yield briefly breaks 5%, the pressure on debt service will increase sharply in the future. Despite the U.S. Treasury's insistence on a strategy to reduce debt, pointing out that the total value of U.S. debt held by foreigners increased by 12% to $9 trillion annually in March (although this was before the announcement of the new tariffs), a number of warning signs have emerged in the market: When economic data weakens, long-term bond yields do not fall but rise The "term premium" of U.S. bonds continues to rise, highlighting fiscal risks Foreign demand for U.S. bonds weakens Liquidity in the Treasury bond spot market declines Japanese government bond storm intensifies And across the Pacific, Japan, on May 20 this week, conducted 20-year government bonds (JGB) auction results were also unusually sluggish. The tender multiple was only 2.5 times, the lowest since 2012, indicating that the market is extremely cautious about the demand for long-term bonds. After the auction results were announced, the price of long-term bonds in the secondary market fell sharply, and according to Bloomberg data, the yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds soared to 2.6%, the highest since 2000. This poses a serious floating risk to institutions that hold large amounts of Japanese long-term bonds, such as pension funds, insurance companies (Japan's largest life insurance company, Japan Life disclosed a book loss of 3.6 trillion yen, or about NT$756 billion) on domestic bonds, banks (such as agriculture and forestry CICC), and international hedge funds. Some institutions have even indicated that they will shift to low-risk assets or reduce the size of government bonds. The market is more worried that if there is a large wave of terminations, it may force institutions to sell bonds, turning floating losses into real losses, repeating the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in 2023. Investment Enlightenment of Changes in the Global Bond Market The warning signals of the US and Japanese government bond markets have important implications for the global financial market. Raymond James Investment Chief Investment Adam is closely watching whether the US 10-year US Treasury yield rises above 4.5%, he pointed out that this level means that the mortgage interest rate may rise to 7%, which will put pressure on the housing market and the overall economy, and is not conducive to the S&P 500 (S& P/500)E index; If yields rise further to 4.75%, the outlook for U.S. stocks will be even less optimistic, and he warned investors to be wary of bond market signals and consider diversifying or reducing their positions in cyclical stocks. Together, Trump's Big America Act and Japan's weak Treasury auction reveal serious challenges to fiscal discipline in the world's major economies, sounding alarm bells for governments and reminding investors to be more cautious in volatile markets and consider diversified portfolio strategies to deal with risks. Related reports Rich dad shouts collapse 5 years finally coming true? Warning again: a disaster more serious than the Great Depression in the United States is coming Rich dad warns: the biggest stock market crash in history has started, baby boomers may be destroyed, don't buy Bitcoin spot ETF Rich Dad: The United States is more than $230 trillion in debt and preparing for bankruptcy, I am using "counterfeit banknotes" to buy special bitcoins 〈Japanese bonds pull alarm! Ten-year interest rates hit a 25-year high, life insurance giants lost 3.6 trillion yuan, and the script of the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley banks was first published in BlockTempo "The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".