September – The Crypto Market and Important Indicators

September is often seen as a negative month for the crypto market. However, the current bull cycle has many differences compared to previous years. Major players like BlackRock, MicroStrategy, Fidelity, and many other large financial institutions are actively participating in the market. Furthermore, governments are also starting to view Bitcoin (BTC) and other major cryptocurrencies as strategic reserve assets, opening up a new development phase for the market. Do Whales Believe in Astrology? The crypto market always contains many psychological factors. Today, many people are paying attention to the phenomenon of "Red Moon" (Blood Moon), an astronomical event that traders following astrology are also interested in. However, we need to remember that major decisions in the market are mostly driven by economic data and large capital flows, rather than astronomical signals. BTC and the Prospects of Price Decline Currently, BTC is trading around ~$111,000, while many crypto analysts forecast a sharp decline in the short term. An important factor to watch is the EMA50 on the Daily timeframe. In previous months (, 7, 8), the EMA50 often played a crucial support role, helping the price bounce back. However, last September, BTC broke the EMA50 and retested it, turning it from support into strong resistance, indicating a potential decline of 15% to 25%. Impact of US Monetary Policy We also need to consider important economic data from the US: CPI, PPI, and the unemployment rate indicate that there is a high possibility the Fed will lower interest rates by 0.25 bps in September. The market is likely to "sell the news" – selling off ahead of the event, before continuing the upward trend. This is an opportunity to observe large money flows to guide investment strategy. Signals From CEOs And Large Companies Recently, the information that the CEO of Microsoft sold 15% of his shares and the CEO of NVIDIA also sold out has left many investors confused. These are signs that the "big players" often use to restructure their portfolios or reflect their own strategies that the market has yet to see. When the big players pull out their capital, small investors need to be cautious and closely follow the large flows of money. The Impact of Global Crises In addition to economic factors, the market is also influenced by geopolitical crises: the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the Israel-Gaza war, and many other fluctuations. These events often create strong short-term volatility, but do not change the long-term trend if large capital flows are still participating. Recommended Trading Strategy Follow EMA50 Daily: This is still a "golden line" for entry/exit decisions. Monitor large money flows: Always pay attention to the actions of institutions and whales, as they are rarely wrong. Prepare for adjustments: A decline of 15%-25% can be an opportunity to re-enter the market with stronger liquidity. Do not panic in the face of volatility: The crypto market rarely rises straight, adjustments are opportunities for long-term growth. Conclusion Although September is usually negative, this bull cycle has many differences: large capital flows are participating strongly, governments are beginning to view BTC as a strategic asset, and the market still maintains a long-term bullish outlook. However, signals from EMA50, CEOs of major companies, and U.S. economic data warn of a short-term price drop. Smart investors will closely follow large capital flows, remain calm, and be ready to seize opportunities from corrections to increase profits.