Today's XRP news: XRP ends six consecutive falls with a rebound of 3.72%. The probability of Spot ETF approval rises to 87%. Bitcoin simultaneously breaks through 110,000 USD.
XRP ended its six-day decline on September 2, rebounding 3.72% to close at $2.8625, mainly driven by increasing expectations for the approval of a Spot ETF. The SEC and CFTC issued a joint statement supporting the development of a standardized encryption ETF framework, and the Polymarket platform shows that the probability of XRP ETF approval in 2025 has risen to 87%. Analyst Nate Geraci believes the actual probability is close to 100%, and if approved, it could trigger an influx of $5-8 billion in institutional funds. Bitcoin rose 1.76% to $111,189, with $25.99 million flowing into the Spot ETF in a single day boosting market sentiment.
SEC and CFTC Joint Statement: Dawn of a Standardized Encryption ETF Framework
On September 2, the SEC and CFTC of the United States issued a joint statement, clearly stating that "Designated Contract Markets (DCMs), Foreign Boards of Trade (FBOTs), and National Securities Exchanges (NSEs) are not prohibited from facilitating the trading of certain spot encryption asset products." The two regulatory agencies also expressed support for innovation while ensuring consumer protection, stating that "each department is prepared to work with market participants to encourage market and technological innovation while ensuring investor and client protection." This statement responds to the 19b-4 applications from Cboe, Nasdaq, and the New York Stock Exchange, which requested rule changes to allow commodity trust shares to be listed and traded under a standardized framework. The joint statement may become a key stepping stone for the introduction of a standardized crypto ETF framework, which will accelerate the approval process for the pending XRP spot ETF.
XRP Spot ETF approval probability rises to 87% analysts bullish to 100%
Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management, pointed out that the Polymarket platform shows that the probability of approval for the XRP ETF in 2025 has reached 87%, and he personally believes it is "close to 100%". Geraci previously warned investors that they underestimated the demand for the Spot XRP ETF, just as they previously underestimated the demand for BTC and ETH Spot ETFs. Currently, global ETFs hold 1.47 million BTC, which is 7% of Bitcoin's final supply (21 million). Similar demand for the XRP Spot ETF may drive prices to new highs. There are currently 11 Spot XRP ETF applications pending approval, including proposals submitted by institutions such as Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares, with a final decision expected to be made before October 2025.
XRP Long and Short Scenario Analysis Key Catalysts Concentrated in October
(Source: TradingView)
The technical analysis shows that XRP's recent price outlook depends on several key catalysts: progress on the Spot ETF, blue-chip companies adopting XRP as a treasury reserve asset, Ripple's application for a U.S. banking license, updates related to SWIFT, and major news on market structure legislation.
Bearish scenarios include legislative setbacks, weak demand from blue-chip companies for treasury reserve assets, the OCC's rejection of Ripple's banking license application, lawmakers protecting SWIFT or the SEC vetoing the XRP spot ETF, all of which could push XRP to $2.5.
Bullish scenarios include the approval of the XRP Spot ETF, the OCC granting bank licenses, increasing demand for blue-chip companies' treasury reserves, bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, or SWIFT losing market share in global remittances to Ripple. These factors could drive XRP to break through the historical high of $3.6606. October may become a critical month that determines whether XRP will break through or continue to weaken.
Bitcoin Spot ETF Inflow Recovers Global Corporate Treasury Allocation Increases
Bitcoin synchronously benefits from the recovery of ETF demand. On September 2, the U.S. BTC Spot ETF market reported a net inflow of $25.99 million (excluding BlackRock's IBIT flow). Fidelity's FBTC reported a net inflow of $13.27 million, ARK 21Shares ARKB saw an inflow of $7.19 million, and Bitwise BITB had an inflow of $1.31 million. Grayscale's Bitcoin mini trust, VanEck, and Invesco Galaxy had a combined net inflow of $1.62 million. Global companies hold a similar view of BTC's value storage function, with increased demand for treasury reserve assets. According to HODL15Capital data, as of the week ending August 29, 19 companies increased their BTC holdings, with the total holdings of the top 100 Bitcoin addresses reaching 995,031 BTC, an increase of 6,760 BTC from the previous week. MicroStrategy leads with 636,505 BTC, followed by Metaplanet with 20,000 BTC in sixth place.
The Federal Reserve's policy becomes a key variable as the market focuses on economic data and legislative progress.
(Source: TradingView)
Traders need to closely monitor the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate path on BTC trading. Metaplanet President Simon Gerovich pointed out: "People in high-inflation countries need Bitcoin to protect their savings from currency collapse and capital controls. People in low-inflation countries need Bitcoin to escape hidden devaluation and negative real yields. Everyone needs Bitcoin because it is built for intergenerational wealth preservation."
Key events that may impact price prospects in the future include: hawkish or dovish stance from Federal Reserve speakers, strength or weakness of the U.S. JOLTs job openings data, legislative progress on Capitol Hill (such as the CLARITY Act), and BTC Spot ETF fund flows.
Bearish scenarios include legislative setbacks, optimistic U.S. data, hawkish Federal Reserve remarks, or ETF outflows, which could push BTC towards the psychological support level of 100,000 dollars.
Bullish scenarios include bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, weak U.S. labor data, dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, and inflows into ETFs. In this case, BTC could target the historical high of 123,731 dollars.
Conclusion
XRP's rebound in sync with Bitcoin shows an increasing sensitivity of the encryption market to regulatory developments and ETF expectations. The joint statement by the SEC and CFTC lays the groundwork for a standardized encryption ETF framework, with the approval probability for the XRP Spot ETF rising to 87%, potentially leading to significant price revaluation. October is becoming a critical time window, with the progress of the CLARITY Act, the Federal Reserve's policy shift, and institutional capital flows collectively determining market direction. Investors need to closely monitor ETF approval progress, macroeconomic data, and legislative dynamics, as these factors may cause short-term volatility but are beneficial for the long-term normalization of the industry.
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Today's XRP news: XRP ends six consecutive falls with a rebound of 3.72%. The probability of Spot ETF approval rises to 87%. Bitcoin simultaneously breaks through 110,000 USD.
XRP ended its six-day decline on September 2, rebounding 3.72% to close at $2.8625, mainly driven by increasing expectations for the approval of a Spot ETF. The SEC and CFTC issued a joint statement supporting the development of a standardized encryption ETF framework, and the Polymarket platform shows that the probability of XRP ETF approval in 2025 has risen to 87%. Analyst Nate Geraci believes the actual probability is close to 100%, and if approved, it could trigger an influx of $5-8 billion in institutional funds. Bitcoin rose 1.76% to $111,189, with $25.99 million flowing into the Spot ETF in a single day boosting market sentiment.
SEC and CFTC Joint Statement: Dawn of a Standardized Encryption ETF Framework
On September 2, the SEC and CFTC of the United States issued a joint statement, clearly stating that "Designated Contract Markets (DCMs), Foreign Boards of Trade (FBOTs), and National Securities Exchanges (NSEs) are not prohibited from facilitating the trading of certain spot encryption asset products." The two regulatory agencies also expressed support for innovation while ensuring consumer protection, stating that "each department is prepared to work with market participants to encourage market and technological innovation while ensuring investor and client protection." This statement responds to the 19b-4 applications from Cboe, Nasdaq, and the New York Stock Exchange, which requested rule changes to allow commodity trust shares to be listed and traded under a standardized framework. The joint statement may become a key stepping stone for the introduction of a standardized crypto ETF framework, which will accelerate the approval process for the pending XRP spot ETF.
XRP Spot ETF approval probability rises to 87% analysts bullish to 100%
Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management, pointed out that the Polymarket platform shows that the probability of approval for the XRP ETF in 2025 has reached 87%, and he personally believes it is "close to 100%". Geraci previously warned investors that they underestimated the demand for the Spot XRP ETF, just as they previously underestimated the demand for BTC and ETH Spot ETFs. Currently, global ETFs hold 1.47 million BTC, which is 7% of Bitcoin's final supply (21 million). Similar demand for the XRP Spot ETF may drive prices to new highs. There are currently 11 Spot XRP ETF applications pending approval, including proposals submitted by institutions such as Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares, with a final decision expected to be made before October 2025.
XRP Long and Short Scenario Analysis Key Catalysts Concentrated in October
(Source: TradingView)
The technical analysis shows that XRP's recent price outlook depends on several key catalysts: progress on the Spot ETF, blue-chip companies adopting XRP as a treasury reserve asset, Ripple's application for a U.S. banking license, updates related to SWIFT, and major news on market structure legislation.
Bearish scenarios include legislative setbacks, weak demand from blue-chip companies for treasury reserve assets, the OCC's rejection of Ripple's banking license application, lawmakers protecting SWIFT or the SEC vetoing the XRP spot ETF, all of which could push XRP to $2.5.
Bullish scenarios include the approval of the XRP Spot ETF, the OCC granting bank licenses, increasing demand for blue-chip companies' treasury reserves, bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, or SWIFT losing market share in global remittances to Ripple. These factors could drive XRP to break through the historical high of $3.6606. October may become a critical month that determines whether XRP will break through or continue to weaken.
Bitcoin Spot ETF Inflow Recovers Global Corporate Treasury Allocation Increases
Bitcoin synchronously benefits from the recovery of ETF demand. On September 2, the U.S. BTC Spot ETF market reported a net inflow of $25.99 million (excluding BlackRock's IBIT flow). Fidelity's FBTC reported a net inflow of $13.27 million, ARK 21Shares ARKB saw an inflow of $7.19 million, and Bitwise BITB had an inflow of $1.31 million. Grayscale's Bitcoin mini trust, VanEck, and Invesco Galaxy had a combined net inflow of $1.62 million. Global companies hold a similar view of BTC's value storage function, with increased demand for treasury reserve assets. According to HODL15Capital data, as of the week ending August 29, 19 companies increased their BTC holdings, with the total holdings of the top 100 Bitcoin addresses reaching 995,031 BTC, an increase of 6,760 BTC from the previous week. MicroStrategy leads with 636,505 BTC, followed by Metaplanet with 20,000 BTC in sixth place.
The Federal Reserve's policy becomes a key variable as the market focuses on economic data and legislative progress.
(Source: TradingView)
Traders need to closely monitor the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate path on BTC trading. Metaplanet President Simon Gerovich pointed out: "People in high-inflation countries need Bitcoin to protect their savings from currency collapse and capital controls. People in low-inflation countries need Bitcoin to escape hidden devaluation and negative real yields. Everyone needs Bitcoin because it is built for intergenerational wealth preservation."
Key events that may impact price prospects in the future include: hawkish or dovish stance from Federal Reserve speakers, strength or weakness of the U.S. JOLTs job openings data, legislative progress on Capitol Hill (such as the CLARITY Act), and BTC Spot ETF fund flows.
Bearish scenarios include legislative setbacks, optimistic U.S. data, hawkish Federal Reserve remarks, or ETF outflows, which could push BTC towards the psychological support level of 100,000 dollars.
Bullish scenarios include bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, weak U.S. labor data, dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, and inflows into ETFs. In this case, BTC could target the historical high of 123,731 dollars.
Conclusion
XRP's rebound in sync with Bitcoin shows an increasing sensitivity of the encryption market to regulatory developments and ETF expectations. The joint statement by the SEC and CFTC lays the groundwork for a standardized encryption ETF framework, with the approval probability for the XRP Spot ETF rising to 87%, potentially leading to significant price revaluation. October is becoming a critical time window, with the progress of the CLARITY Act, the Federal Reserve's policy shift, and institutional capital flows collectively determining market direction. Investors need to closely monitor ETF approval progress, macroeconomic data, and legislative dynamics, as these factors may cause short-term volatility but are beneficial for the long-term normalization of the industry.