XRP Today News: Liquidity analysis shows that XRP may lead a new round of encryption market rise. The seasonal fall risk in September still needs to be vigilant.

Crypto market commentator CryptoInsightUK pointed out in the latest video analysis that XRP is expected to lead in the new round of crypto asset rises. This judgment is based on the structural differentiation of XRP's liquidity distribution compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum on lower time frame charts, as well as confirmation signals from the XRP/BTC trading pair. The analysis shows that XRP has cleared the lower liquidity pool, with major liquidity concentrated above, creating conditions for an upward reversal. However, historical data shows that September is the cruelest month for the crypto market, with Bitcoin averaging a fall of 3.77%. Coupled with the uncertainty of the Fed's policy meeting, the market is facing a crossroads of seasonal weakness and policy easing.

XRP Technicals Show Structural Advantages, Liquidity Distribution Indicates Pump Potential

According to an analysis by CryptoInsightUK, the liquidity mapping comparison of XRP, BTC, and ETH shows key differences. The liquidity pool around the $106,000 area below Bitcoin has been an attraction for intraday timeframes, but the daily heatmap still shows heavier clusters above spot. Analysts believe that "now that we are at these levels, we are more likely to continue to acquire this liquidity for Bitcoin."

He added that on the daily time frame, "the upside could push towards the liquidity in the $126,000-$128,000 region, and then we start to see orange liquidity appear at $141,000." He described any reversal as quick and reflexive: "When we get this upward move... it will be quite aggressive, and people will be caught on the wrong side of the trade."

In contrast, Ethereum's setup is described as tactically softer, as it has already reached significant upper liquidity during its previous pump. In his hourly mapping, a more concentrated liquidity pool is located below the recent lows, indicating a considerable mean reversion risk. He explained, "We have actually returned to this area, and we can see this denser liquidity is again below us, around $4,050... The concentrated liquidity is located around $4,000 to $4,450," describing ETH as currently "a bit unperturbed."

The key to the bullish divergence lies in XRP. On an hourly basis, it shows that XRP has cleared and "obtained the red liquidity below," leaving "major liquidity... above." He believes that this configuration is favorable for an upward reversal when buying momentum appears.

In terms of relative performance, he emphasized the XRP/BTC trading pair on the four-hour chart, where the previous resistance zone has flipped to support, and momentum has repeatedly dipped into the oversold area and shown constructive reactions. He stated, "When we are at this level, we hope to flip this resistance into support. Currently, we are holding that support."

September Seasonal Pressure Emerges, Market Sentiment Shifts into the "Fear" Zone

The cryptocurrency market is trying to shake off the weekend lethargy, but history suggests that this may just be the calm before the storm. According to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, market sentiment has dropped from the neutral zone to the "fear" zone, falling from 75 points (out of 100) in mid-August to today's 46 points — the worst score since mid-June.

This emotional shift occurs as traders prepare for the historically most brutal month for crypto: "Red September." Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a fall of 3.77% every September.

The broader macroeconomic landscape adds another layer of complexity. The Fed's policy meeting on September 16-17 may be one of the most controversial meetings in years. The market suggests an 87% chance of a 0.25% rate cut, and the crypto market finds itself at the crossroads of seasonal weakness and potential monetary policy easing.

The traditional market shows mixed signals, with S&P 500 futures pointing to a positive opening on Tuesday, while the core CPI at 3.1% remains above the Fed's target.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Key Support Testing in a No Trend State

Bitcoin shows resilience, rising 0.53% to $108,842, recovering from a daily low of $107,270. The flagship cryptocurrency is fluctuating within its current range, indicating that buyers are defending the psychologically important level of $108,000.

The average directional index (ADX) for Bitcoin is currently 20, indicating that there is no clear trend at the moment. The ADX measures trend strength on a scale of 0-100, with readings below 25 indicating high volatility and non-directional trading. In this case, Bitcoin's score of 20 suggests it is unable to rise further to new highs or fall further to a death cross. For traders, this means that Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, and range trading strategies may be preferable to trend-following methods.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40 points, indicating that the "Red September" effect is real: traders are beginning to sell their tokens faster than usual. The RSI measures market momentum on a scale from 0 to 100, with readings above 70 indicating overbought conditions and below 30 indicating oversold conditions. Currently, Bitcoin is approaching the oversold area, with more people interested in selling tokens rather than buying.

The squeeze momentum indicator shows a "closed" state, indicating that volatility has been released rather than accumulated. This indicator identifies the compression of the market before an explosive move. When it is "closed," it indicates that recent price action has exhausted recent volatility. This reading shows a bearish movement, although there is a modest recovery today, selling pressure still dominates.

The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) provides traders with a glimpse of resistance and support levels by looking at the average price of an asset over short and long time frames. The EMA configuration for Bitcoin remains bullish, with the 50-day EMA above the 200-day EMA. However, the current price action hovers around these averages, indicating a battle between bulls and bears.

On the prediction market Myriad, traders are feeling a bearish atmosphere. Myriad users now believe that the likelihood of Bitcoin falling to $105,000 is 75%.

Ethereum Struggles While XRP Shows Weakest Trend Signals

Ethereum is currently underperforming, falling 0.66% to $4,363, despite opening slightly above $4,392.87. The second-largest cryptocurrency briefly surged to $4,490.97—a 2.2% rise from the opening—but failed to maintain the gains, indicating a rejection at the $4,500 resistance level.

The ADX of Ethereum is 28, which is more bullish than Bitcoin, exceeding the key threshold of 25 that confirms a trend is established. This reading indicates that Ethereum's recent price action represents genuine trend behavior rather than random fluctuations. Traders typically view an ADX above 25 as validation for trend-following strategies, although the current price weakness contradicts this bullish signal—this divergence often precedes sharp moves.

The squeeze momentum indicator indicates that volatility is accumulating after a compression phase, typically preceding a breakout. Ethereum's RSI is at 57, which is also considered a bullish zone by traders.

XRP performed the weakest, falling 0.5% to $2.76. The Ripple-associated coin briefly touched $2.8387—moving 2.3% intraday—before bears took control, pushing it down to $2.70.

ADX at 19 is the weakest among the three major cryptocurrencies, firmly below the trend threshold of 25. This reading indicates that XRP is trapped in a range-bound market with no clear directional bias. Although the squeeze momentum "opens", XRP's inability to maintain gains above $2.80 suggests that bears are still in control. Price action shows a potential descending triangle pattern, which could end with a bearish breakout.

Conclusion

XRP shows structural differences in liquidity distribution compared to BTC and ETH, with the clearing of lower liquidity pools providing a technical foundation for its upward reversal. However, the seasonal pressures in September cannot be ignored, as historical data shows this to be the weakest month for the crypto market. Coupled with the uncertainty of the Fed's policy meeting, the market is in a complex environment where technical and fundamental factors intertwine. Traders should closely monitor whether XRP can maintain key support levels and achieve a transition from resistance to support, while also paying attention to the defense of important technical levels such as Bitcoin at $108,000 and Ethereum at $4,360. Against the backdrop of market sentiment shifting into the 'fear' zone, liquidity distribution analysis offers an interesting perspective on XRP's potential lead, but seasonal factors and macro risks still need to be approached with caution.