A Bitcoin price model with 78% accuracy has emerged: Does it indicate that BTC will reach a new historical high?

Gate news, at the beginning of this week, the Bitcoin (BTC) market saw a striking bullish signal—a bullish engulfing candle pattern, which completely reversed the bearish trend from last weekend. This technical pattern, along with BTC maintaining above the support level of $105,000 for two consecutive days, indicates a potential change in market structure and adds momentum for a sustained recovery. Even more exciting is a Bitcoin price model based on historical data, boasting an accuracy rate of up to 78%, which strongly suggests that Bitcoin prices are likely to reach new all-time highs. Does this mean Bitcoin is about to enter a new round of explosive growth?

1. Bullish Engulfing Candle: A High Success Rate Signal in Bull Markets

A bullish engulfing candle is an important technical analysis pattern that typically indicates a reversal or continuation of the trend. To ensure its reliability, this model has set three strict screening criteria:

Engulfing range: An engulfing candle must engulf at least two previous candles, indicating strong buying power.

Timing of appearance: This pattern should occur at the end of the correction phase, indicating that the market may soon rebound from the pullback.

Structural Breakthrough: A significant structural breakthrough should be observed in the trading period following the engulfing candle to confirm the bullish momentum.

According to the model's analysis of the Bitcoin daily chart since January 2021, a total of 19 bullish engulfing candle patterns that meet the above criteria have been recorded. Amazingly, among them, 15 patterns successfully set new local highs in the following days or weeks, with a success rate of about 78%.

(Source: Trading View)

It is worth noting that these 19 signals occurred during the bull market. In 2024 and 2025, only two signals failed, occurring in May 2024 and March 2025, when the pattern failed to make a new high. Despite these outliers, the current bullish market structure indicates that Bitcoin is in a favorable environment for sustained rises, with the potential to make new highs before retesting $100,000.

II. Bear Market Comparison: The Importance of Trend Background

To further validate the effectiveness of the model, researchers applied it to the bear market of 2022. The results showed that the bullish engulfing pattern appeared four times during the bear market. However, three of those instances failed to make new highs, with only one successfully occurring in February 2022.

This contrast emphasizes the importance of the trend background. In the past, the effectiveness of this pattern was limited in a downtrend, while it demonstrated a very high success rate in a bullish market. This further enhances the model's likelihood of successfully predicting Bitcoin prices in the current bullish market.

3. Bitcoin flashes "bullish" liquidity status

In addition to technical analysis models, the liquidity situation in the Bitcoin market is also showing positive signals. According to the latest data from Swissblock, the Bitcoin market conditions are presenting a scenario not seen since the end of 2022. Despite the widespread panic at that time, BTC still bottomed out at $16,800 and doubled within three months.

Currently, liquidity has returned to the levels seen in December 2022, indicating that prices may rise further. Although the macro environment, market participants, and catalysts have changed, one constant rule is: when liquidity recovers, BTC prices also tend to bounce back. The current structure suggests that, as capital flows back into the system, Bitcoin may be in a similar breakout phase.

The role of liquidity has significantly changed in this cycle, highlighting Bitcoin's maturity as a macro asset. According to Glassnode statistics, since the cycle low in November 2022, Bitcoin has absorbed over $54.4 billion in new capital, bringing its internal network liquidity or fair market value to a historical high of $94.4 billion. This indicates that a large amount of new funds are flowing into the Bitcoin ecosystem, providing a solid foundation for price rise.

Conclusion:

A Bitcoin price model with an accuracy of up to 78%, combined with the current bullish liquidity conditions, suggests that Bitcoin's price is expected to reach new historical highs. Although market sentiment may be divided, technical signals and fund flows point to a positive future. For investors, closely monitoring this model and changes in market liquidity may help them better grasp the next wave of Bitcoin's rise.