Bitcoin (BTC) trading volume falls to its lowest point in 10 years, consolidation or supply shock?

According to Gate news and a report by Bitcoinist, based on data from CryptoQuant, the average circulating supply of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to its lowest level in 10 years (calculated based on exchange inflows and outflows). The depletion of liquidity indicates that the market is in a broader consolidation phase, with both buyers and sellers waiting for clearer macro or technical signals.

Although a decrease in exchange activity typically indicates investor hesitation, it may also suggest that supply tightening is intensifying behind the scenes, especially in cases where large holders are transferring Bitcoin to cold wallets. With Bitcoin prices slightly above key support levels, low liquidity and escalating tensions could trigger the next round of explosive volatility.

Market outlook diverges, Bitcoin faces a critical moment

Bitcoin is undergoing one of the most critical technical and macroeconomic junctures this year, once again becoming a focal point of attention. Over the weekend, following the U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the price of Bitcoin briefly fell below the $100,000 mark. However, after Iran announced a ceasefire, the price of Bitcoin quickly rebounded, reclaiming the key support level above $105,000. This rapid rebound highlights the extreme volatility of the cryptocurrency market and underscores the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin's future trajectory.

Bitcoin's current level—about 5% lower than its historical high—appears stable on the surface, but it is facing a significant test of strength. While some analysts expect Bitcoin to break through its historical high, others warn that a lack of momentum may indicate a further pullback below the psychological threshold of $100,000. The current price structure remains stable, but the absence of a clear trend direction leaves investors feeling uneasy.

The key data provided by top analyst Axel Adler further complicates the situation. According to his predictions, the average circulating supply of Bitcoin on centralized exchanges (including inflows and outflows) has dropped to just 40,000 BTC per day, the lowest level in a decade.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

A considerable portion of Bitcoin has been withdrawn from the exchange, indicating a strong long-term holding behavior in the market, but also suggesting a potential liquidity shortage. If demand rebounds while supply remains constrained, the price of Bitcoin may face significant upward pressure. Until then, the market will continue to maintain cautious expectations.

BTC Price Analysis: Testing the Resistance Level Near $109,000

Bitcoin has shown new strength within the 3-day timeframe, with the trading price rebounding significantly from last week's low of around 98000 USD to 107029 USD. The chart highlights two key horizontal lines - 103600 USD as a solid support level and 109,300 USD as a strong resistance level. Since the beginning of May, this range has become the core consolidation area for BTC, being repeatedly rejected and failing to break through, indicating market indecision.

After successfully reclaiming the 50-day moving average (blue), the price is currently approaching the upper limit of this range, which is near $94,891. It is noteworthy that the 100-day moving average (green) and the 200-day moving average (red) are still well below the current price, indicating that despite recent fluctuations, the long-term trend remains bullish.

The trading volume remains relatively stable but lacks the explosive power commonly seen in breakthrough rebounds. For Bitcoin to decisively set a new high, the bulls must convert the resistance level of $109,300 into a support level. If this level can be broken, it may initiate a new round of upward movement, advancing into uncharted territory.

Before this, BTC seems to be locked in a controllable consolidation phase, with $103,600 providing a reliable support base. As long as this level remains unchanged, the structure favors the bulls, but breaking through the resistance level may trigger a new round of uncertainty.

(Source: Trading View)