STH MVRV Signals Potential Bitcoin Rally Surge Toward $154K Ceiling

Bitcoin’s STH MVRV ratio is below +1 STDV, suggesting room for further rally potential in the current bull cycle.

ETF speculators likely will sell near $126K, influencing market dynamics and possibly triggering a correction.

Previous rallies rose about 46% above +1 STDV, which corresponds to a price near $154K in today’s market.

The Bitcoin rally’s next phase may depend heavily on short-term holder (STH) behavior and the timing of ETF speculators’ exits. Current on-chain data shows the market is approaching a potential turning point.

STH MVRV Suggests Room for Further Gains

According to Axel Adler Jr , the short-term holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) ratio has not yet crossed the +1 standard deviation (STDV) threshold, known as the “green” line. Historically, surpassing this level has marked the onset of a “super rally.” In previous instances during this bull cycle, Bitcoin climbed an average of 46% above the +1 STDV level. Applied to today’s figures, this could push prices close to $154,000.

Source: Axel Adler Jr

However, current market conditions suggest caution. Risk appetite appears restrained compared to earlier phases of the bull run. Adler notes that while the STH MVRV still shows potential for upside, the absence of broad market enthusiasm might limit gains this time.

ETF Speculators May Set the Stage for Selling

Axel Adler Jr emphasizes that selling pressure is expected to emerge around the $126,000 level. This estimate is based on the assumption that many ETF speculators entered the market near the $84,000 mark. With a considerable profit margin, these participants may begin realizing gains once Bitcoin nears $126,000.

This projected behavior could create the conditions for a price correction. While STHs may remain confident and willing to hold during elevated market conditions, ETF-driven sell-offs might be the catalyst for downward price pressure. In contrast to long-term holders, ETF investors are often quicker to react to changing price conditions.

Bull Phase Maturity May Curb Further Upside

The late-stage character of the current bull market could further reduce the likelihood of extended gains. Adler suggests that even if Bitcoin reaches the threshold for a “super rally,” broader market conditions might not support sustained price movement beyond this level.

Although historical patterns indicate the potential for new highs, prevailing sentiment appears less aggressive. As such, the actions of both STH holders and ETF participants will likely define the rally’s upper limits in the near term.

The post STH MVRV Signals Potential Bitcoin Rally Surge Toward $154K Ceiling appears on Crypto Front News. Visit our website to read more interesting articles about cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and digital assets.