WTI原油は、地政学的な不確実性が再燃するなかで、急な上昇局面を延長しており、投資家は神経をとがらせている。私たちは原油価格における過去のショックを見直し、その後のS&P 500指数（SPX）のパフォーマンスを確認した。具体的には、株式市場への影響を把握するために、直近の4つの主要な高値を調べた。最近の上昇局面を捉えるために、私たちはWTI原油の月次バーチャートを共有する。そこでは2月に月次MACDの買いシグナルが点灯しており、2022年の高値から続いていた長い下落トレンドの終着点を示している。このシグナルは、今後数か月における原油のさらなる上方継続を支持している。現在の地政学的な背景は、短期的なピーク水準をもたらしつつも、それが定着しない可能性がある一方で、テクニカルなセットアップは、WTI原油が長期にわたって続き得る上昇サイクルの初期段階にあることを示唆している。歴史的に、原油の上昇局面はしばしば株式市場にとって弱い局面と同時期になることが多い。多くの場合、SPXは原油の主要な高値の後、上昇の勢いを維持するのに苦戦し、その代わりに調整局面や弱気相場サイクルへと移行している。最も最近の例は2022年3月に現れたもので、現在の環境に対する最も近い比較になり得る。WTI原油のそのピークの後、主要な指数はその年の大半にわたって圧力を受け続けた。別の例では、株式の反応が一様ではないことが示されており、一般に原油価格のショックの後は条件がより厳しくなる。2018年10月のピーク後、SPXは急激な下方修正を経験したのち、長期的な上昇トレンドを再開した。2011年には、反応はより長引くレンジ相場の様相だった。2008年には、原油がピークを付けたのとちょうど同時に、主要な指数が深刻な弱気相場サイクルに入り始めていた。原油のピークがすべての株式の下落（ドローダウン）を引き起こすわけではないが、歴史は、それらがより厳しい市場環境の到来としばしば重なっていることを示している。WTI原油がブレイクアウトしたことは、株が崩れることを示すものではないが、SPXが今後数か月においてより値動きの荒い、修正的な動きを見せる可能性が高いことは示唆している。—ケイティ・ストックトン（Will Tamplin）Fairlead Strategiesのリサーチにここから無料でアクセスできる。免責事項：CNBC Proの寄稿者によって表明されたすべての意見は、寄稿者自身の見解に限られ、CNBC、またはその親会社もしくは関連会社の見解を反映するものではない。また、これらの意見は、同寄稿者によってテレビ、ラジオ、インターネット、または別の媒体で、以前に広められている可能性がある。THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer. Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC (“Fairlead Strategies”) for informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes and not intended to be, nor construed as, financial, legal, tax or investment advice. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, reflecting the author’s current expectations, and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on broad-based indices, market conditions, different types of securities, and cryptocurrencies, using the discipline of technical analysis, which evaluates the demand and supply based on market pricing. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This document is intended for CNBC Pro subscribers only and is not for distribution to the general public. Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Fairlead Strategies undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Fairlead Strategies, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Fairlead Strategies or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Fairlead Strategies or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Any investments made are made under the same terms as nonaffiliated investors and do not constitute a controlling interest. No liability is accepted by Fairlead Strategies, its officers, employees, affiliates, or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein. Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules, or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
米国の石油価格がイラン戦争の継続に伴い高騰しています。過去のピークが株式に与えた影響を振り返る
WTI原油は、地政学的な不確実性が再燃するなかで、急な上昇局面を延長しており、投資家は神経をとがらせている。私たちは原油価格における過去のショックを見直し、その後のS&P 500指数（SPX）のパフォーマンスを確認した。具体的には、株式市場への影響を把握するために、直近の4つの主要な高値を調べた。最近の上昇局面を捉えるために、私たちはWTI原油の月次バーチャートを共有する。そこでは2月に月次MACDの買いシグナルが点灯しており、2022年の高値から続いていた長い下落トレンドの終着点を示している。このシグナルは、今後数か月における原油のさらなる上方継続を支持している。現在の地政学的な背景は、短期的なピーク水準をもたらしつつも、それが定着しない可能性がある一方で、テクニカルなセットアップは、WTI原油が長期にわたって続き得る上昇サイクルの初期段階にあることを示唆している。歴史的に、原油の上昇局面はしばしば株式市場にとって弱い局面と同時期になることが多い。多くの場合、SPXは原油の主要な高値の後、上昇の勢いを維持するのに苦戦し、その代わりに調整局面や弱気相場サイクルへと移行している。最も最近の例は2022年3月に現れたもので、現在の環境に対する最も近い比較になり得る。WTI原油のそのピークの後、主要な指数はその年の大半にわたって圧力を受け続けた。別の例では、株式の反応が一様ではないことが示されており、一般に原油価格のショックの後は条件がより厳しくなる。2018年10月のピーク後、SPXは急激な下方修正を経験したのち、長期的な上昇トレンドを再開した。2011年には、反応はより長引くレンジ相場の様相だった。2008年には、原油がピークを付けたのとちょうど同時に、主要な指数が深刻な弱気相場サイクルに入り始めていた。原油のピークがすべての株式の下落（ドローダウン）を引き起こすわけではないが、歴史は、それらがより厳しい市場環境の到来としばしば重なっていることを示している。WTI原油がブレイクアウトしたことは、株が崩れることを示すものではないが、SPXが今後数か月においてより値動きの荒い、修正的な動きを見せる可能性が高いことは示唆している。—ケイティ・ストックトン（Will Tamplin）Fairlead Strategiesのリサーチにここから無料でアクセスできる。免責事項：CNBC Proの寄稿者によって表明されたすべての意見は、寄稿者自身の見解に限られ、CNBC、またはその親会社もしくは関連会社の見解を反映するものではない。また、これらの意見は、同寄稿者によってテレビ、ラジオ、インターネット、または別の媒体で、以前に広められている可能性がある。THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer. Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC (“Fairlead Strategies”) for informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes and not intended to be, nor construed as, financial, legal, tax or investment advice. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, reflecting the author’s current expectations, and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on broad-based indices, market conditions, different types of securities, and cryptocurrencies, using the discipline of technical analysis, which evaluates the demand and supply based on market pricing. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This document is intended for CNBC Pro subscribers only and is not for distribution to the general public. Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Fairlead Strategies undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Fairlead Strategies, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Fairlead Strategies or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Fairlead Strategies or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Any investments made are made under the same terms as nonaffiliated investors and do not constitute a controlling interest. No liability is accepted by Fairlead Strategies, its officers, employees, affiliates, or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein. Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules, or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.