Trade Finance APP News— The number of U.S. nonfarm payrolls after seasonal adjustment surged by 178,000 in March, not only far exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, but also completely reversing last month’s trend of negative employment growth, reaching the highest increase since December 2024.
In the same period, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, performing similarly better than expected; the average hourly earnings year-over-year pace of decline slowed to 0.2% on a month-over-month basis. The combination of strong employment and moderate wage growth creates the “Goldilocks” economic scenario the U.S. Federal Reserve would idealize—both demonstrating the resilience of the U.S. economy and, at the same time, avoiding inflation pressures from rising further.
The eye-catching nonfarm data provides solid fundamental support for the U.S. dollar, and coupled with a surge in safe-haven buying, the U.S. Dollar Index rose by about 0.1% on Friday, closing higher for the second consecutive trading day, maintaining strength across a basket of global currencies.
The Japanese yen weakens across the board as expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike cool significantly
Against the backdrop of thin foreign exchange market trading activity during the Good Friday holiday, the yen weakened across the board against a basket of major and minor currencies in the Friday Asian trading session. The USD/JPY pair has been in a downward range for a third consecutive trading day; on the day, USD/JPY rose by 0.1% to 159.72.
Japan’s March Tokyo core inflation rate eased, becoming the latest signal of relief from inflation pressure. Market expectations for the probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates by 25 basis points at the April meeting were cut from 25% to 15%, and rate-hike expectations cooled sharply.
Investors are currently awaiting the release of key economic data from Japan such as inflation, unemployment rate, and wages, to further assess the forward-looking guidance for the April 28 policy meeting. Uncertainty about the outlook for monetary policy continues to weigh on the yen’s price trend.
Japanese authorities repeatedly warn; expectations for currency intervention heat up
Facing the continued depreciation of the yen, Japan’s Finance Minister Kamiyama Aotsuki repeatedly issued warnings to FX traders, pointing out that speculation activities in the FX and crude oil futures markets have clearly increased, and market volatility has risen significantly; the yen’s weakness has already had a tangible impact on people’s livelihoods and Japan’s domestic economy.
She reiterated that the Japanese government is prepared to take comprehensive response measures from various angles, and did not rule out taking “decisive” intervention actions in the FX market in order to maintain market stability.
Affected by developments in the Middle East situation, in late March the USD/JPY broke above the 160-yen level, reaching a rare high since July 2024. Japan’s last FX-market intervention occurred when the yen fell to an almost 38-year low in July 2024.
Summary and Technical Analysis:
As the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to intensify, U.S. President Trump has made tough remarks on the Iran issue, warning that over the next two or three weeks military actions will be strengthened. In response, Iran has strongly pushed back, while geopolitical risk continues to drive up demand for safe-haven assets in the U.S. dollar.
As for the Bank of Japan, although senior officials have stated that if economic forecasts match expectations, rate hikes will continue and reinforce the policy tightening stance, the Bank’s Executive Director Koji Nakamura also pointed out that while rising oil prices suppress economic growth, they may also raise long-term inflation expectations; the dual impact makes the Bank’s decision-making even more cautious.
With multiple negative factors intertwined, the yen against the U.S. dollar continues to face persistent pressure, and the weak short-term pattern is unlikely to be reversed.
Technically, the U.S. dollar against the yen has continuously held the uptrend line; the upward trend is still a sound bullish formation. Support lies in the midline of the rising channel indicated by the dashed line and around the 159 integer level.
(U.S. dollar vs. Japanese yen daily chart, source: 易汇通 under 汇通财经)
At 21:01 Beijing time, USD/JPY is currently quoted at 159.59/60.
(Editor: 王治强 HF013）
【Risk Warning】According to relevant regulations on foreign exchange administration, buying and selling foreign exchange should be conducted at transaction venues designated by the state, such as banks. Any unauthorized buying and selling of foreign exchange, any disguised form of trading foreign exchange, dealing in foreign exchange by “buying and selling back to back,” or illegally introducing the buying and selling of foreign exchange in large amounts will be subject to administrative penalties by the foreign exchange administration authorities according to law; if it constitutes a crime, criminal liability will be pursued according to law.
米国の雇用統計（非農業部門雇用者数）が17.8万人と急増し、ドルに火がつく。日本の介入警報が鳴り響く
Trade Finance APP News— The number of U.S. nonfarm payrolls after seasonal adjustment surged by 178,000 in March, not only far exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, but also completely reversing last month’s trend of negative employment growth, reaching the highest increase since December 2024.
In the same period, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, performing similarly better than expected; the average hourly earnings year-over-year pace of decline slowed to 0.2% on a month-over-month basis. The combination of strong employment and moderate wage growth creates the “Goldilocks” economic scenario the U.S. Federal Reserve would idealize—both demonstrating the resilience of the U.S. economy and, at the same time, avoiding inflation pressures from rising further.
The eye-catching nonfarm data provides solid fundamental support for the U.S. dollar, and coupled with a surge in safe-haven buying, the U.S. Dollar Index rose by about 0.1% on Friday, closing higher for the second consecutive trading day, maintaining strength across a basket of global currencies.
The Japanese yen weakens across the board as expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike cool significantly
Against the backdrop of thin foreign exchange market trading activity during the Good Friday holiday, the yen weakened across the board against a basket of major and minor currencies in the Friday Asian trading session. The USD/JPY pair has been in a downward range for a third consecutive trading day; on the day, USD/JPY rose by 0.1% to 159.72.
Japan’s March Tokyo core inflation rate eased, becoming the latest signal of relief from inflation pressure. Market expectations for the probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates by 25 basis points at the April meeting were cut from 25% to 15%, and rate-hike expectations cooled sharply.
Investors are currently awaiting the release of key economic data from Japan such as inflation, unemployment rate, and wages, to further assess the forward-looking guidance for the April 28 policy meeting. Uncertainty about the outlook for monetary policy continues to weigh on the yen’s price trend.
Japanese authorities repeatedly warn; expectations for currency intervention heat up
Facing the continued depreciation of the yen, Japan’s Finance Minister Kamiyama Aotsuki repeatedly issued warnings to FX traders, pointing out that speculation activities in the FX and crude oil futures markets have clearly increased, and market volatility has risen significantly; the yen’s weakness has already had a tangible impact on people’s livelihoods and Japan’s domestic economy.
She reiterated that the Japanese government is prepared to take comprehensive response measures from various angles, and did not rule out taking “decisive” intervention actions in the FX market in order to maintain market stability.
Affected by developments in the Middle East situation, in late March the USD/JPY broke above the 160-yen level, reaching a rare high since July 2024. Japan’s last FX-market intervention occurred when the yen fell to an almost 38-year low in July 2024.
Summary and Technical Analysis:
As the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to intensify, U.S. President Trump has made tough remarks on the Iran issue, warning that over the next two or three weeks military actions will be strengthened. In response, Iran has strongly pushed back, while geopolitical risk continues to drive up demand for safe-haven assets in the U.S. dollar.
As for the Bank of Japan, although senior officials have stated that if economic forecasts match expectations, rate hikes will continue and reinforce the policy tightening stance, the Bank’s Executive Director Koji Nakamura also pointed out that while rising oil prices suppress economic growth, they may also raise long-term inflation expectations; the dual impact makes the Bank’s decision-making even more cautious.
With multiple negative factors intertwined, the yen against the U.S. dollar continues to face persistent pressure, and the weak short-term pattern is unlikely to be reversed.
Technically, the U.S. dollar against the yen has continuously held the uptrend line; the upward trend is still a sound bullish formation. Support lies in the midline of the rising channel indicated by the dashed line and around the 159 integer level.
(U.S. dollar vs. Japanese yen daily chart, source: 易汇通 under 汇通财经)
At 21:01 Beijing time, USD/JPY is currently quoted at 159.59/60.
(Editor: 王治强 HF013）
【Risk Warning】According to relevant regulations on foreign exchange administration, buying and selling foreign exchange should be conducted at transaction venues designated by the state, such as banks. Any unauthorized buying and selling of foreign exchange, any disguised form of trading foreign exchange, dealing in foreign exchange by “buying and selling back to back,” or illegally introducing the buying and selling of foreign exchange in large amounts will be subject to administrative penalties by the foreign exchange administration authorities according to law; if it constitutes a crime, criminal liability will be pursued according to law.