Trading Finance APP News—— The U.S. March non-farm payrolls (seasonally adjusted) surged by 178,000, not only far exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, but also completely reversing the gloomy trend of negative employment growth from the previous month, marking the highest increase since December 2024.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, performing even better than expected; the average hourly earnings’ month-over-month growth rate slowed to 0.2%. The combination of strong employment and mild wage growth forms the Federal Reserve’s ideal “Goldilocks” economic scenario—showing both the resilience of the U.S. economy and avoiding further upward pressure on inflation.
The impressive non-farm data provided solid fundamental support for the U.S. dollar, and coupled with a wave of safe-haven buying, the U.S. Dollar Index rose by about 0.1% on Friday, extending its gains for the second consecutive trading day and sustaining strength across a basket of global currencies.
The yen weakens across the board; expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike cool significantly
Against the backdrop of relatively thin foreign-exchange market trading during the Good Friday holiday, during Friday’s Asian trading session the yen weakened across the board against both a basket of major and minor currencies. The USD/JPY pair remained in a downward range for the third consecutive trading day; the dollar rose against the yen by 0.1% to 159.72 for the day.
Japan’s March Tokyo core inflation eased, becoming the latest sign that inflationary pressure is alleviating. Market expectations for the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its April meeting were reduced from 25% to 15%, causing a sharp cooldown in rate-hike expectations.
Investors are currently waiting for key economic data from Japan—such as inflation, unemployment, and wages—to further assess the forward-looking guidance for the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on April 28. Uncertainty about the outlook for monetary policy continues to weigh on the yen’s performance.
Japan’s authorities repeatedly warn about rising expectations of FX intervention
Facing continued yen depreciation, Japan’s Finance Minister Koya Kawamura has issued multiple warnings to foreign-exchange traders, stating that speculative activity has clearly increased in FX and crude oil futures markets, and market volatility has risen significantly. The yen’s weakness has already had a real impact on people’s livelihoods and the domestic economy in Japan.
She reiterated that the Japanese government is prepared to take comprehensive response measures from various angles, and does not rule out taking “decisive” intervention actions in the FX market to maintain market stability.
Affected by the situation in the Middle East, in late March the USD/JPY broke above the 160-yen level, reaching a rare high since July 2024. Japan’s most recent FX-market intervention occurred in July 2024, when the yen fell to its near 38-year low.
Summary and technical analysis:
As the Middle East geopolitical conflict continues to intensify, U.S. President Trump made tough remarks regarding Iran, warning that the next two to three weeks will see strengthened military action. Iran, in turn, responded forcefully, and geopolitical risk continues to push up demand for U.S. dollar safe-haven assets.
Regarding the Bank of Japan, although senior officials said that if economic forecasts match expectations, the rate-hike cycle would likely continue—reinforcing the policy tightening stance—BOJ executive director Koji Nakamura also pointed out that rising oil prices may suppress economic growth while potentially lifting long-term inflation expectations. The double impact makes the central bank’s decision-making even more cautious.
With multiple negative factors interwoven, the yen versus the dollar remains under continued pressure, and the weak short-term trend is difficult to reverse.
From a technical perspective, the U.S. dollar versus the yen has continued to hold the rising trendline. The uptrend pattern is still intact; support lies in the middle band of the rising channel shown by the dashed line and at the 159 integer level.
(USD/JPY daily chart; source: Yihuitong under HuiTong Finance)
At 21:01 Beijing time, USD/JPY is trading at 159.59/60.
(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)
【Risk Warning】According to regulations related to foreign-exchange administration, foreign exchange transactions should be conducted in transaction venues designated by the state, such as banks. Unauthorized trading of foreign exchange, disguised foreign-exchange dealing, brokering foreign exchange for profit, or illegal introductions of large amounts of foreign-exchange trading shall be subject to administrative penalties by the foreign-exchange administration authority according to law; if it constitutes a crime, criminal liability will be pursued according to law.
米国の雇用統計（非農業部門雇用者数）が17.8万人と急増し、ドルに火がつく。日本の介入警報が鳴り響く
Trading Finance APP News—— The U.S. March non-farm payrolls (seasonally adjusted) surged by 178,000, not only far exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, but also completely reversing the gloomy trend of negative employment growth from the previous month, marking the highest increase since December 2024.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, performing even better than expected; the average hourly earnings’ month-over-month growth rate slowed to 0.2%. The combination of strong employment and mild wage growth forms the Federal Reserve’s ideal “Goldilocks” economic scenario—showing both the resilience of the U.S. economy and avoiding further upward pressure on inflation.
The impressive non-farm data provided solid fundamental support for the U.S. dollar, and coupled with a wave of safe-haven buying, the U.S. Dollar Index rose by about 0.1% on Friday, extending its gains for the second consecutive trading day and sustaining strength across a basket of global currencies.
The yen weakens across the board; expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike cool significantly
Against the backdrop of relatively thin foreign-exchange market trading during the Good Friday holiday, during Friday’s Asian trading session the yen weakened across the board against both a basket of major and minor currencies. The USD/JPY pair remained in a downward range for the third consecutive trading day; the dollar rose against the yen by 0.1% to 159.72 for the day.
Japan’s March Tokyo core inflation eased, becoming the latest sign that inflationary pressure is alleviating. Market expectations for the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its April meeting were reduced from 25% to 15%, causing a sharp cooldown in rate-hike expectations.
Investors are currently waiting for key economic data from Japan—such as inflation, unemployment, and wages—to further assess the forward-looking guidance for the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on April 28. Uncertainty about the outlook for monetary policy continues to weigh on the yen’s performance.
Japan’s authorities repeatedly warn about rising expectations of FX intervention
Facing continued yen depreciation, Japan’s Finance Minister Koya Kawamura has issued multiple warnings to foreign-exchange traders, stating that speculative activity has clearly increased in FX and crude oil futures markets, and market volatility has risen significantly. The yen’s weakness has already had a real impact on people’s livelihoods and the domestic economy in Japan.
She reiterated that the Japanese government is prepared to take comprehensive response measures from various angles, and does not rule out taking “decisive” intervention actions in the FX market to maintain market stability.
Affected by the situation in the Middle East, in late March the USD/JPY broke above the 160-yen level, reaching a rare high since July 2024. Japan’s most recent FX-market intervention occurred in July 2024, when the yen fell to its near 38-year low.
Summary and technical analysis:
As the Middle East geopolitical conflict continues to intensify, U.S. President Trump made tough remarks regarding Iran, warning that the next two to three weeks will see strengthened military action. Iran, in turn, responded forcefully, and geopolitical risk continues to push up demand for U.S. dollar safe-haven assets.
Regarding the Bank of Japan, although senior officials said that if economic forecasts match expectations, the rate-hike cycle would likely continue—reinforcing the policy tightening stance—BOJ executive director Koji Nakamura also pointed out that rising oil prices may suppress economic growth while potentially lifting long-term inflation expectations. The double impact makes the central bank’s decision-making even more cautious.
With multiple negative factors interwoven, the yen versus the dollar remains under continued pressure, and the weak short-term trend is difficult to reverse.
From a technical perspective, the U.S. dollar versus the yen has continued to hold the rising trendline. The uptrend pattern is still intact; support lies in the middle band of the rising channel shown by the dashed line and at the 159 integer level.
(USD/JPY daily chart; source: Yihuitong under HuiTong Finance)
At 21:01 Beijing time, USD/JPY is trading at 159.59/60.
(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)
【Risk Warning】According to regulations related to foreign-exchange administration, foreign exchange transactions should be conducted in transaction venues designated by the state, such as banks. Unauthorized trading of foreign exchange, disguised foreign-exchange dealing, brokering foreign exchange for profit, or illegal introductions of large amounts of foreign-exchange trading shall be subject to administrative penalties by the foreign-exchange administration authority according to law; if it constitutes a crime, criminal liability will be pursued according to law.
Report