A counterintuitive piece of data: buy gold in troubled times???
Gold just set a record it hasn't seen in 106 years. 10 consecutive days of decline—the last time this happened was February 1920. Counting from the January high, gold fell 27%, from $5,600 to a low of $4,090. Last week's single-week drop was 11%, the worst week since 1983. CNN says gold has fallen over 14% since the war began. In the face of a real war, the world's oldest safe-haven asset, collapsed. But BTC didn't. While gold plummeted 11% in a single week last week, BTC ETFs saw net inflows for four consecutive weeks, with $95 million flowing in last week. BTC is around $70,500 today—not pretty, but at least decent. ByteTree's Chief Investment Officer Charlie Morris calculated a figure: In 2017, one BTC first exceeded the price of one troy ounce of gold. 2019: worth 2.7 ounces. 2020 when the pandemic crashed, worth 3.4 ounces. After FTX's explosion, worth 9.1 ounces. February this year worth 12.4 ounces. Now, 1 BTC is worth 16 ounces of gold. BTC's ratio to gold rose 30% from its low. Honestly, this dataset made me think for a long time. To this day, we still question whether big pancake is actually digital gold—people used to treat this as a joke mostly before. Gold has 5,000 years of history, BTC only 16 years. Behind gold is central bank reserves, behind BTC is a bunch of Web3 geeks and Saylor. But what happened this week is: War has been waging for four weeks, the Strait of Hormuz closed, oil prices spiked to $112, 20% of global oil supply interrupted. This is the most textbook-perfect risk-avoidance scenario in the gold playbook. The result: gold set its longest consecutive decline in a century, while BTC actually held up.
A counterintuitive piece of data: buy gold in troubled times???
Gold just set a record it hasn't seen in 106 years. 10 consecutive days of decline—the last time this happened was February 1920.
Counting from the January high, gold fell 27%, from $5,600 to a low of $4,090.
Last week's single-week drop was 11%, the worst week since 1983. CNN says gold has fallen over 14% since the war began.
In the face of a real war, the world's oldest safe-haven asset, collapsed.
But BTC didn't.
While gold plummeted 11% in a single week last week, BTC ETFs saw net inflows for four consecutive weeks, with $95 million flowing in last week. BTC is around $70,500 today—not pretty, but at least decent.
ByteTree's Chief Investment Officer Charlie Morris calculated a figure:
In 2017, one BTC first exceeded the price of one troy ounce of gold.
2019: worth 2.7 ounces. 2020 when the pandemic crashed, worth 3.4 ounces. After FTX's explosion, worth 9.1 ounces. February this year worth 12.4 ounces.
Now, 1 BTC is worth 16 ounces of gold. BTC's ratio to gold rose 30% from its low.
Honestly, this dataset made me think for a long time.
To this day, we still question whether big pancake is actually digital gold—people used to treat this as a joke mostly before. Gold has 5,000 years of history, BTC only 16 years. Behind gold is central bank reserves, behind BTC is a bunch of Web3 geeks and Saylor.
But what happened this week is:
War has been waging for four weeks, the Strait of Hormuz closed, oil prices spiked to $112, 20% of global oil supply interrupted.
This is the most textbook-perfect risk-avoidance scenario in the gold playbook. The result: gold set its longest consecutive decline in a century, while BTC actually held up.