After bottoming out, it has started to rebound. From a technical perspective, selling pressure is extremely heavy, lacking conditions for a direct V-shaped recovery.
Japan's strategic petroleum reserve release on Thursday is a real "supply increase" — a clear bearish signal. Meanwhile, Wang Yi just spoke with Iran's Foreign Minister, who stated Iran is currently only blocking sea lanes to warring nations.
My assessment: upside resistance is met, likely a second bottom test.
With moving average resistance too close around 104.5, combined with Japan's epic-scale reserve release bearish catalyst about to materialize, this rebound will likely not go far. Capital will probably use this bearish catalyst to push down another wave, testing or even piercing the 100.00 support level.
If it breaks below 100, under the geopolitical crisis support sentiment from Iran, a quick long lower shadow recovery above 100 would indeed be a short trap, with subsequent rallies testing 106 or even higher.
However, if the actual impact of the reserve release exceeds expectations, causing a large bearish candle to directly pierce 100 without recovery, that would be a trend breakdown, opening up downside significantly, potentially triggering a stampede of long-side holders defending their positions.
Currently, either wait for the rebound to 104.4-106.8 moving average resistance showing weakness before shorting; or patiently wait for this pullback, observing around 100.00 for clear consolidation signals of "breaking then holding" before going long again.
Let me discuss crude oil.
After bottoming out, it has started to rebound. From a technical perspective, selling pressure is extremely heavy, lacking conditions for a direct V-shaped recovery.
Japan's strategic petroleum reserve release on Thursday is a real "supply increase" — a clear bearish signal. Meanwhile, Wang Yi just spoke with Iran's Foreign Minister, who stated Iran is currently only blocking sea lanes to warring nations.
My assessment: upside resistance is met, likely a second bottom test.
With moving average resistance too close around 104.5, combined with Japan's epic-scale reserve release bearish catalyst about to materialize, this rebound will likely not go far. Capital will probably use this bearish catalyst to push down another wave, testing or even piercing the 100.00 support level.
If it breaks below 100, under the geopolitical crisis support sentiment from Iran, a quick long lower shadow recovery above 100 would indeed be a short trap, with subsequent rallies testing 106 or even higher.
However, if the actual impact of the reserve release exceeds expectations, causing a large bearish candle to directly pierce 100 without recovery, that would be a trend breakdown, opening up downside significantly, potentially triggering a stampede of long-side holders defending their positions.
Currently, either wait for the rebound to 104.4-106.8 moving average resistance showing weakness before shorting; or patiently wait for this pullback, observing around 100.00 for clear consolidation signals of "breaking then holding" before going long again.