Today's Market Overview -- Today things are really brewing beneath the surface....
I took a look around the market and found that this string is really taut right now, with both longs and shorts stretched tight... Let me first look at the data, then draw conclusions.. Let me start with OI today... Throughout the Asian session, OI is showing a steady upward momentum... indicating that at this level, both longs and shorts are entering in large numbers... （Image 1） The current OI has now reached recent highs... The leverage on both sides is stretched tight.. (though still some distance from extreme levels, see middle of Image 1) But any breakthrough in either direction already has massive fuel behind it The volatility after CME opens and on Monday is expected to be significant Meanwhile, the overall Asian futures contract total delta is in a downward state, suggesting that passively entered short positions outnumber passively entered long positions. This can also be seen from Image 2 - Binance and Bybit's net long and net short positions. Shorts entering on both sides are about 1.5x more than longs. Also, many shorts were actively chased in after Trump's 48-hour message (70k->68k segment) While longs were accumulated throughout the Asian session. So since both longs and shorts have entered, there will be potential liquidation/stop-loss flow... Looking at the estimated liquidations currently, liquidations across the three exchanges' long positions are heavily clustered between 67k~68k... (CME open vicinity is a danger zone, will explain in detail in today's plan next) Of course, the liquidations above are estimates.. Let me look at the on-chain liquidations and stop-losses on Hyperliquid.. (( Image 4) Because positions on Hyperliquid chain are all transparent, indeed there are quite a few visible liquidations below 68k (Image 4 right side) But the stop-loss orders are abnormal, not many are placed near 68k (compared to today's Asian session flush) Meanwhile, both short liquidations and stop-losses are around 70k... So today's situation is another moment of longs and shorts mutually calling each other idiots... Let me continue looking at other factors...
Today's Market Overview -- Today things are really brewing beneath the surface....
I took a look around the market and found that this string is really taut right now, with both longs and shorts stretched tight...
Let me first look at the data, then draw conclusions..
Let me start with OI today... Throughout the Asian session, OI is showing a steady upward momentum... indicating that at this level, both longs and shorts are entering in large numbers...
（Image 1）
The current OI has now reached recent highs...
The leverage on both sides is stretched tight.. (though still some distance from extreme levels, see middle of Image 1)
But any breakthrough in either direction already has massive fuel behind it
The volatility after CME opens and on Monday is expected to be significant
Meanwhile, the overall Asian futures contract total delta is in a downward state, suggesting that passively entered short positions outnumber passively entered long positions.
This can also be seen from Image 2 - Binance and Bybit's net long and net short positions.
Shorts entering on both sides are about 1.5x more than longs.
Also, many shorts were actively chased in after Trump's 48-hour message (70k->68k segment)
While longs were accumulated throughout the Asian session.
So since both longs and shorts have entered, there will be potential liquidation/stop-loss flow...
Looking at the estimated liquidations currently, liquidations across the three exchanges' long positions are heavily clustered between 67k~68k...
(CME open vicinity is a danger zone, will explain in detail in today's plan next)
Of course, the liquidations above are estimates.. Let me look at the on-chain liquidations and stop-losses on Hyperliquid..
(( Image 4)
Because positions on Hyperliquid chain are all transparent, indeed there are quite a few visible liquidations below 68k (Image 4 right side)
But the stop-loss orders are abnormal, not many are placed near 68k (compared to today's Asian session flush)
Meanwhile, both short liquidations and stop-losses are around 70k...
So today's situation is another moment of longs and shorts mutually calling each other idiots... Let me continue looking at other factors...