I. The True Reason Behind the US Stock/Gold Crash (Core)
- Oil Price Surge → Passive Liquidity Contraction: Skyrocketing oil prices cause the real energy sector to occupy more capital, draining liquidity from financial markets, passively raising real interest rates, directly suppressing US stocks, gold, and crypto.
- Contractionary Inflation + Fed Dare Not Cut Rates: High oil prices push inflation higher, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high rates or even refrain from rate cuts, further raising real interest rates, continuously suppressing the three asset classes.
- Asset-Linked Collapse: US stocks/gold plunge → US Treasury yields soar → Reverse pressure further compresses assets, forming negative feedback; the four witches day is merely an amplifier, not the main cause.
II. Subsequent Assessment of US Stocks
- High-level bubble is evident; don't chase, wait for panic-driven capitulation for bargain-price opportunities.
- Each additional day of Strait of Hormuz conflict, liquidity contracts one notch, US stocks weaken further; even if conflict ceases, it may be a bull trap.
III. Operational Recommendations
- Don't chase at high levels; cash is king, pick up quality targets after the crash.
- Short-term trading: strictly control position size, don't mistake fluctuation rebounds for trends.
I. The True Reason Behind the US Stock/Gold Crash (Core)
- Oil Price Surge → Passive Liquidity Contraction: Skyrocketing oil prices cause the real energy sector to occupy more capital, draining liquidity from financial markets, passively raising real interest rates, directly suppressing US stocks, gold, and crypto.
- Contractionary Inflation + Fed Dare Not Cut Rates: High oil prices push inflation higher, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high rates or even refrain from rate cuts, further raising real interest rates, continuously suppressing the three asset classes.
- Asset-Linked Collapse: US stocks/gold plunge → US Treasury yields soar → Reverse pressure further compresses assets, forming negative feedback; the four witches day is merely an amplifier, not the main cause.
II. Subsequent Assessment of US Stocks
- High-level bubble is evident; don't chase, wait for panic-driven capitulation for bargain-price opportunities.
- Each additional day of Strait of Hormuz conflict, liquidity contracts one notch, US stocks weaken further; even if conflict ceases, it may be a bull trap.
III. Operational Recommendations
- Don't chase at high levels; cash is king, pick up quality targets after the crash.
- Short-term trading: strictly control position size, don't mistake fluctuation rebounds for trends.