Today's Market Overview -- K-line and capital flow look quite boring, but the options side can't hold back anymore?
Woke up over the weekend and took a look, the movement seems really dull... It actually ranged for over 12 hours above 70k...
Looked at the charts for an hour or two this morning and kept wondering - beneath the calm of this K-line, is it the calmness of sentiment, or is it hiding something else...
Let me break it down bit by bit.
Chart 1: Order Book Currently in Asian trading, there's a large spot order from OKX at 70500... quite uncommon, normally we see more from Binance and Coinbase...
Suddenly an order appeared on the aggregated order book, but couldn't find it on either Binance or Coinbase. After filtering, found out it was from OKX.
This is also one of the factors supporting 70500 in Asian trading today... Of course, the lack of selling pressure is the bigger factor.
Because in Chart 2, the CVD for both contracts and spot on Saturday was extremely calm... So behind this calm K-line, the capital sentiment is also very quiet....
Nothing strange here.
What's interesting is the attitude shown by the options side regarding short-term price action in the 1D skew.
Chart 3: Yesterday during European hours, before US stock market open, BTC just recovered from 71.3k back to around 70.5k..
But the options side was already heavily betting that BTC might crash significantly yesterday... skew dropped to the -20% range..
( (meaning put IV is higher, being bought at a premium)
Then, after US stocks opened and everyone realized BTC was moving strong... the options side started reverse betting...
Skew started rebounding, indicating people started buying put protection to close positions and sold puts, suppressing put IV. No longer buying downside protection.. or even possibly bought some calls to bet on upside.
Further moved to around 0% in Asian trading today...
One more thing - in the past bear market period, the neutral range was around -10% because sustained bear market had funds buying downside protection, so overall puts remained more expensive.
Now at around 0% today... besides the fact that options don't buy downside protection in the short term, it could even be understood that options are betting there might be upside before the weekend or CME open...
While skew for other timeframes is gradually returning to the neutral range... indicating the sentiment for medium-term downside protection is also easing off. Returning to normal.
This is the options side sentiment.
Chart 4: Looking at current market stop-loss zones now
Overall unchanged from yesterday... In the ranging zone, both longs and shorts are placing dense bets... Stop-loss zones are respectively at the upper and lower edges of the current range.
So for the weekend, the zones I'm watching continue to be yesterday's two ranges: 71~72k and 68~69k...
Today's Market Overview -- K-line and capital flow look quite boring, but the options side can't hold back anymore?
Woke up over the weekend and took a look, the movement seems really dull... It actually ranged for over 12 hours above 70k...
Looked at the charts for an hour or two this morning and kept wondering - beneath the calm of this K-line, is it the calmness of sentiment, or is it hiding something else...
Let me break it down bit by bit.
Chart 1: Order Book
Currently in Asian trading, there's a large spot order from OKX at 70500... quite uncommon, normally we see more from Binance and Coinbase...
Suddenly an order appeared on the aggregated order book, but couldn't find it on either Binance or Coinbase. After filtering, found out it was from OKX.
This is also one of the factors supporting 70500 in Asian trading today... Of course, the lack of selling pressure is the bigger factor.
Because in Chart 2, the CVD for both contracts and spot on Saturday was extremely calm... So behind this calm K-line, the capital sentiment is also very quiet....
Nothing strange here.
What's interesting is the attitude shown by the options side regarding short-term price action in the 1D skew.
Chart 3: Yesterday during European hours, before US stock market open, BTC just recovered from 71.3k back to around 70.5k..
But the options side was already heavily betting that BTC might crash significantly yesterday... skew dropped to the -20% range..
( (meaning put IV is higher, being bought at a premium)
Then, after US stocks opened and everyone realized BTC was moving strong... the options side started reverse betting...
Skew started rebounding, indicating people started buying put protection to close positions and sold puts, suppressing put IV. No longer buying downside protection.. or even possibly bought some calls to bet on upside.
Further moved to around 0% in Asian trading today...
One more thing - in the past bear market period, the neutral range was around -10% because sustained bear market had funds buying downside protection, so overall puts remained more expensive.
Now at around 0% today... besides the fact that options don't buy downside protection in the short term, it could even be understood that options are betting there might be upside before the weekend or CME open...
While skew for other timeframes is gradually returning to the neutral range... indicating the sentiment for medium-term downside protection is also easing off. Returning to normal.
This is the options side sentiment.
Chart 4: Looking at current market stop-loss zones now
Overall unchanged from yesterday... In the ranging zone, both longs and shorts are placing dense bets... Stop-loss zones are respectively at the upper and lower edges of the current range.
So for the weekend, the zones I'm watching continue to be yesterday's two ranges: 71~72k and 68~69k...