Lloyd's List Intelligenceは、3月1日から13日にかけて、ホルムズ海峡を通航した船舶はわずか77隻であると報告した。これに対し、2025年3月1日から11日にかけては、1,229隻の船舶が海峡を通過した。イギリスの日刊紙デイリー・テレグラフによると、14日には海峡を通航した船舶がなく、紛争が始まって以来初めての事態である。
#美政府计划多国联合护航霍尔木兹 Why Does the US Want to Establish the "Hormuz Alliance"
The US plans to establish a so-called "Hormuz Alliance" in the coming days to control the Strait of Hormuz and urges countries like the UK and Japan to respond. With Middle East hostilities continuing, what is the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz? How have various parties reacted? How difficult is escort operations in the strait?
Current Situation in the Strait of Hormuz On the 14th, Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi told US media that the Strait of Hormuz is actually open and only closed to "Iran's enemies," saying "although many ships choose not to pass for security reasons, that's not our concern." Arne Loman Rasmussen, chief analyst at global risk management firm, told US media that while the Strait of Hormuz has not been physically blocked, Iranian threats coupled with drone and missile attacks have deterred many tankers from passing through the strait. "The strait has effectively closed. Tankers face attack risks, struggle to obtain insurance, or face exorbitant insurance costs, so they can only wait for the security situation to improve before resuming navigation." The website of the International Maritime Organization, headquartered in London, UK, shows that from the time the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran through March 13, there were 16 confirmed ship attack incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in the deaths of at least 7 sailors and 1 shipyard worker, with at least 4 sailors missing. Lloyd's List Intelligence reported that from March 1-13, only 77 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz. In comparison, from March 1-11, 2025, 1229 vessels passed through the strait. According to the British Daily Telegraph, on March 14, no vessels transited the strait, marking the first time this has occurred since the conflict began. The current situation in the Strait of Hormuz has caused international oil prices to soar, with cascading consequences intensifying. Andy Haldane, former chief economist at the Bank of England, writes: "The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, leading to disruptions in one-fifth of global oil transportation, with daily losses approaching 20 million barrels. This is the largest shock the global oil market has ever experienced, leading to severe intraday oil price volatility and massive releases of strategic oil reserves. This is unprecedented in history."
How Have Various Parties Reacted? On the 16th, the US news website Axios cited multiple sources saying that US officials conducted intensive telephone diplomacy consultations with countries from Europe, Asia, and the Gulf region over the weekend to seek their political commitment to establishing the so-called "Hormuz Alliance." On the 15th, US President Trump stated that if NATO allies do not take action to help the US keep the Strait of Hormuz open, NATO faces a "very bad" future. Although Trump said on social media that many countries "will send warships together with the US," no country has yet made a public commitment. On the 15th, British Prime Minister Starmer spoke by phone with Trump regarding passage through the Strait of Hormuz. British Energy Security and Net Zero Minister Miliband told media that the British Cabinet is studying all possible options and has "consulted with allies including the US." On the 15th, German Foreign Minister Baerbock stated that Germany sees no need to participate in escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz. She expressed "high skepticism" about the possibility of expanding the EU "Shield" escort operation to the Strait of Hormuz. On the 15th, South Korea's presidential office Cheong Wa Dae released a statement saying it has noted Trump's relevant social media remarks, and the South Korean government is closely monitoring the Middle East situation and related countries' movements, exploring various measures to protect Korean citizens and ensure the safety of energy transportation channels. According to the Japan Economic News website on the 15th, the US hopes Japan will dispatch ships to "escort" the Strait of Hormuz, but Japan faces obstacles under domestic law. In 2019, the US attempted to establish a Hormuz Strait escort coalition and explored whether Japan was willing to cooperate. The Abe government at that time ultimately decided that Japan's Self-Defense Forces would not join the escort alliance. According to reports from the British Financial Times and other media, France, Italy, India, and other countries have conducted talks with Iran, hoping to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said that direct dialogue with Iran is the most effective way to resume shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
How Difficult Are Escort Operations? An Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesman said earlier this month that Iran "very much welcomes" the US providing escort for tankers, saying "we are waiting for their arrival." He said the US should "remember the 1987 fire incident of the American super tanker 'Bridgeton,' and recent tanker attack incidents" before making any decisions. What Nayini referred to was an incident during the Iran-Iraq War when the "Bridgeton" tanker under US escort hit a mine while passing through the Strait of Hormuz and was damaged. On the 14th, Araghchi said on social media: "The US-touted security umbrella has proven to be full of holes, failing to serve as a deterrent and instead inviting trouble. Now, the US has to beg other countries to help ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz." Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei previously issued a statement vowing to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz to counter the US. Analysts believe that even if the US successfully establishes an "escort coalition," the actual execution of such escort operations would be extremely difficult. Jonathan Schroeder, a researcher at the Center for Naval Analyses think tank, stated that Iran might adopt various countermeasures, including mines, attack speedboats, missiles, and attack drones. "If you lay mines in the water, combined with surface and air threats, threats extend from the sea bottom to the surface and then to the air. This makes escorting much more difficult." Democratic Senator Chris Murphy representing Connecticut recently wrote on social media: "How about providing naval escorts for tankers? It is indeed a viable option, but it is more difficult to implement than imagined. First, it requires deploying all of our naval forces. 100 tankers need to be escorted each day. Second, if we cannot clear mines and drones, our own warships will also face danger." Retired US Navy Rear Admiral John Kirby, former Pentagon spokesman, said that escort operations are high-cost, time-consuming activities and "may not ensure success." Analysts point out that with the conflict continuing and Iran retaining missile and drone strike capabilities, many US allies worry that dispatching warships will further entangle them in regional conflict, so there may be limited participants in establishing an international escort coalition. According to the Wall Street Journal, given the risks involved, many countries have maintained a "reserved attitude" toward conducting such escort missions before the fighting ends.
#美政府计划多国联合护航霍尔木兹 アメリカが「ホルムズ同盟」の結成を望む理由とは？
アメリカは近い将来、いわゆる「ホルムズ同盟」を結成してホルムズ海峡をコントロールする予定であり、イギリスや日本などの国々に対応を促している。中東での継続的な紛争がある中で、ホルムズ海峡の現在の状況はどうなっているのか？様々な関係者はどのように反応しているのか？海峡における護衛作戦を実施する上での困難は何か？
ホルムズ海峡の現在の状況は？
イランの外務大臣アラグチ氏は14日にアメリカメディアのインタビューで、ホルムズ海峡は実際には開かれており、「イランの敵」に対してのみ閉鎖されていると述べた。彼は「多くの船舶が安全上の理由で通航しないことを選択しているが、これは我々とは無関係である」と述べた。
グローバルリスク管理会社のチーフアナリストであるアルネ・ロマン・ラスムッセン氏はアメリカメディアに、ホルムズ海峡は物理的にはブロックされていないものの、イランの脅迫とドローンおよびミサイル攻撃の組み合わせにより、多くのタンカーが海峡を通航することを回避していると述べた。「海峡は事実上閉鎖されている。タンカーは攻撃されるリスクに直面し、保険の取得が困難であるか、または法外な保険料に直面しているため、安全状況が改善されるまで待つしかない。」
ロンドンに本部がある国際海事機関のウェブサイトによると、アメリカとイスラエルがイランに対して軍事作戦を開始した時から3月13日までの期間に、ホルムズ海峡およびその周辺で合計16件の確認された船舶攻撃が発生し、少なくとも7人の船員と1人の造船所作業員が死亡し、少なくとも4人の船員が行方不明となっている。
Lloyd's List Intelligenceは、3月1日から13日にかけて、ホルムズ海峡を通航した船舶はわずか77隻であると報告した。これに対し、2025年3月1日から11日にかけては、1,229隻の船舶が海峡を通過した。イギリスの日刊紙デイリー・テレグラフによると、14日には海峡を通航した船舶がなく、紛争が始まって以来初めての事態である。
ホルムズ海峡の現在の状況により、国際石油価格は急騰しており、連鎖効果が強まっている。イングランド銀行の前チーフエコノミストであるアンディ・ハルダン氏は、「ホルムズ海峡が事実上閉鎖されたことにより、世界の石油輸送量の5分の1が寸断され、日々の損失は2,000万バレルに近づいている。これは世界石油市場がかつて経験したことのない最大のショックであり、石油価格の日中ボラティリティの深刻化と戦略石油備蓄の大量放出をもたらしている。これは歴史上前例がない」と述べた。
様々な関係者はどのように反応しているか？
Axiosは16日に複数の情報源を引用し、アメリカ当局がいわゆる「ホルムズ同盟」の結成に関する政治的約束を確保するために、週末に欧州、アジア、湾岸地域の国々と集中的な電話外交協議を実施したと報じた。
トランプ大統領は15日、NATO同盟国がアメリカがホルムズ海峡を開いたままにするのを支援するための行動を取らない場合、NATOは「非常に悪い」将来に直面することになると述べた。
トランプ氏はソーシャルメディアで、多くの国が「アメリカと共に軍艦を派遣する」と述べたが、現在のところ公式な約束をした国はない。
イギリスのスターマー首相は15日、ホルムズ海峡の通航に関してトランプと電話会談を行った。イギリスのエネルギー安全保障・ネットゼロ排出大臣ミリバンドはメディアに、イギリス内閣は可能なすべての選択肢を検討しており、「アメリカを含む同盟国と協議した」と述べた。
ドイツの外務大臣バーボック氏は15日、ドイツはホルムズ海峡での護衛作戦に参加する必要があると述べた。彼女はEUの「シールド」護衛作戦がホルムズ海峡に拡大する可能性について「重大な懸念」を表明した。
韓国の大統領府青瓦台は15日、トランプがソーシャルメディアで述べた関連発言に留意していることを示す報道資料を発表し、韓国政府は中東情勢と関連国の行動を密接に監視しており、韓国国民の保護とエネルギー輸送回廊の安全を確保するための様々な対策を模索していると述べた。
日本経済新聞ウェブサイトの15日の報道によると、アメリカはホルムズ海峡護衛のための艦艇派遣を日本に望んでいるが、日本は国内の法的障害に直面している。アメリカは2019年にホルムズ海峡護衛連合を結成することを試み、日本が協力に関心を持っているかどうかを探索した。当時の安倍政権は最終的に、日本の自衛隊が護衛連合に参加しないことを決定した。
イギリスのフィナンシャル・タイムズなどのメディアの報道によると、フランス、イタリア、インドなどの国々はイランと協議し、ホルムズ海峡を通じた安全な通航を確保することを望んでいる。
インドの外務大臣スブラマニャム・ジャイシャンカル氏は、イランとの直接対話がホルムズ海峡を通じた海運を再開するための最も効果的な方法であると述べた。
護衛作戦がどの程度困難であるか？
イランのイスラム革命防衛隊報道官ナイニ氏は今月初め、イランはタンカーのアメリカによる護衛作戦を「非常に歓迎する」だろう、「我々は彼らの到着を待っている」と述べた。彼はアメリカが決定する前に、「1987年のアメリカのスーパータンカー・ブリッジトンの火災事件と最近のタンカー攻撃事件を思い出すべき」と述べた。
ナイニ氏は、イラン・イラク戦争中にアメリカ軍の護衛下でホルムズ海峡を通航中に地雷に接触して損傷したブリッジトン油田タンカーを指していた。
アラグチ氏は14日にソーシャルメディアで、「アメリカが大々的に宣伝する安全保障傘は穴だらけであることが証明され、抑止力として機能せず、むしろ問題を招いている。今、アメリカはホルムズ海峡の安全を確保するために他国に助けを乞わざるを得ない状況に陥っている」と述べた。イランの最高指導者ムジタバ・ハメネイ氏は以前、アメリカへの報復としてホルムズ海峡を引き続きブロックすることを誓う声明を発表した。
アナリストらは、アメリカが「護衛連合」の結成に成功したとしても、そのような護衛作戦の実際の実施は極めて困難であろうと考えている。海軍分析センターシンクタンクの研究員ジョナサン・シュローデン氏は、イランが地雷、攻撃用高速艇、ミサイル、攻撃用ドローンなど様々な対抗措置を採用する可能性が高いと述べた。「水中に地雷を敷設し、表面および空中脅威と組み合わせた場合、脅威は海底から表面および空中に及ぶ。これにより護衛作戦はさらに困難になるだろう。」
コネチカット州選出の民主党アメリカ上院議員クリス・マーフィ氏は最近、ソーシャルメディアに「タンカーの海上護衛提供について？これは確かに実行可能な選択肢だが、実装はイメージより困難である。第一に、我々の海軍全体の配置が必要になるだろう。毎日100隻のタンカーが護衛を必要とする。第二に、地雷とドローンを排除できなければ、我々自身の軍艦も危険に直面することになる」と述べた。
退役したアメリカ海軍少将でありペンタゴン前報道官のジョン・カービー氏は、護衛作戦は高コストで時間のかかる活動であり、「成功が必ずしも保証されていない」と述べた。
アナリストらは、紛争が継続している中、イランは引き続きミサイルとドローン攻撃能力を有していることを指摘している。多くのアメリカの同盟国は、軍艦を派遣することで地域がさらに紛争に巻き込まれることを懸念しているため、国際護衛連合の結成に対応する国の数は限定的である可能性がある。ウォールストリート・ジャーナルによると、関連するリスクを考慮すると、多くの国は紛争が終わる前にそのような護衛任務を実施することに関して「様子見」姿勢を維持している。
The US plans to establish a so-called "Hormuz Alliance" in the coming days to control the Strait of Hormuz and urges countries like the UK and Japan to respond. With Middle East hostilities continuing, what is the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz? How have various parties reacted? How difficult is escort operations in the strait?
Current Situation in the Strait of Hormuz
On the 14th, Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi told US media that the Strait of Hormuz is actually open and only closed to "Iran's enemies," saying "although many ships choose not to pass for security reasons, that's not our concern."
Arne Loman Rasmussen, chief analyst at global risk management firm, told US media that while the Strait of Hormuz has not been physically blocked, Iranian threats coupled with drone and missile attacks have deterred many tankers from passing through the strait. "The strait has effectively closed. Tankers face attack risks, struggle to obtain insurance, or face exorbitant insurance costs, so they can only wait for the security situation to improve before resuming navigation."
The website of the International Maritime Organization, headquartered in London, UK, shows that from the time the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran through March 13, there were 16 confirmed ship attack incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in the deaths of at least 7 sailors and 1 shipyard worker, with at least 4 sailors missing.
Lloyd's List Intelligence reported that from March 1-13, only 77 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz. In comparison, from March 1-11, 2025, 1229 vessels passed through the strait. According to the British Daily Telegraph, on March 14, no vessels transited the strait, marking the first time this has occurred since the conflict began.
The current situation in the Strait of Hormuz has caused international oil prices to soar, with cascading consequences intensifying. Andy Haldane, former chief economist at the Bank of England, writes: "The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, leading to disruptions in one-fifth of global oil transportation, with daily losses approaching 20 million barrels. This is the largest shock the global oil market has ever experienced, leading to severe intraday oil price volatility and massive releases of strategic oil reserves. This is unprecedented in history."
How Have Various Parties Reacted?
On the 16th, the US news website Axios cited multiple sources saying that US officials conducted intensive telephone diplomacy consultations with countries from Europe, Asia, and the Gulf region over the weekend to seek their political commitment to establishing the so-called "Hormuz Alliance."
On the 15th, US President Trump stated that if NATO allies do not take action to help the US keep the Strait of Hormuz open, NATO faces a "very bad" future.
Although Trump said on social media that many countries "will send warships together with the US," no country has yet made a public commitment.
On the 15th, British Prime Minister Starmer spoke by phone with Trump regarding passage through the Strait of Hormuz. British Energy Security and Net Zero Minister Miliband told media that the British Cabinet is studying all possible options and has "consulted with allies including the US."
On the 15th, German Foreign Minister Baerbock stated that Germany sees no need to participate in escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz. She expressed "high skepticism" about the possibility of expanding the EU "Shield" escort operation to the Strait of Hormuz.
On the 15th, South Korea's presidential office Cheong Wa Dae released a statement saying it has noted Trump's relevant social media remarks, and the South Korean government is closely monitoring the Middle East situation and related countries' movements, exploring various measures to protect Korean citizens and ensure the safety of energy transportation channels.
According to the Japan Economic News website on the 15th, the US hopes Japan will dispatch ships to "escort" the Strait of Hormuz, but Japan faces obstacles under domestic law. In 2019, the US attempted to establish a Hormuz Strait escort coalition and explored whether Japan was willing to cooperate. The Abe government at that time ultimately decided that Japan's Self-Defense Forces would not join the escort alliance.
According to reports from the British Financial Times and other media, France, Italy, India, and other countries have conducted talks with Iran, hoping to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said that direct dialogue with Iran is the most effective way to resume shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
How Difficult Are Escort Operations?
An Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesman said earlier this month that Iran "very much welcomes" the US providing escort for tankers, saying "we are waiting for their arrival." He said the US should "remember the 1987 fire incident of the American super tanker 'Bridgeton,' and recent tanker attack incidents" before making any decisions.
What Nayini referred to was an incident during the Iran-Iraq War when the "Bridgeton" tanker under US escort hit a mine while passing through the Strait of Hormuz and was damaged.
On the 14th, Araghchi said on social media: "The US-touted security umbrella has proven to be full of holes, failing to serve as a deterrent and instead inviting trouble. Now, the US has to beg other countries to help ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz." Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei previously issued a statement vowing to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz to counter the US.
Analysts believe that even if the US successfully establishes an "escort coalition," the actual execution of such escort operations would be extremely difficult. Jonathan Schroeder, a researcher at the Center for Naval Analyses think tank, stated that Iran might adopt various countermeasures, including mines, attack speedboats, missiles, and attack drones. "If you lay mines in the water, combined with surface and air threats, threats extend from the sea bottom to the surface and then to the air. This makes escorting much more difficult." Democratic Senator Chris Murphy representing Connecticut recently wrote on social media: "How about providing naval escorts for tankers? It is indeed a viable option, but it is more difficult to implement than imagined. First, it requires deploying all of our naval forces. 100 tankers need to be escorted each day. Second, if we cannot clear mines and drones, our own warships will also face danger." Retired US Navy Rear Admiral John Kirby, former Pentagon spokesman, said that escort operations are high-cost, time-consuming activities and "may not ensure success." Analysts point out that with the conflict continuing and Iran retaining missile and drone strike capabilities, many US allies worry that dispatching warships will further entangle them in regional conflict, so there may be limited participants in establishing an international escort coalition. According to the Wall Street Journal, given the risks involved, many countries have maintained a "reserved attitude" toward conducting such escort missions before the fighting ends.