87.5% of strategists are bearish on the dollar? That number is way too round, something feels off about it.
As for the euro, don't even bother hoping, rate hikes might only happen in 2027, it's basically just waiting to die right now.
Global growth dropping to 2.7%, 2026 is really going to be cold.
The RBA's hawkish stance this time is serious, feels like there are tough battles ahead.
The US GDP only lifted 0.1% and they're calling it a shot in the arm, that's quite the sales pitch haha.
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DataPickledFish
· 01-08 07:58
87.5% of strategists are bearish on the dollar? That figure seems a bit extreme—it's not always this unanimous.
The euro situation is even worse, with rate hikes not until 2027? Looks like there's no hope there.
The RBA is still playing the hawkish card, is inflation really that stubborn?
Global growth dropped to 2.7%, that's a bit sour.
US GDP only managed 2.0%, and they're bragging about it?
Who would dare touch the euro with the EU's 1.3% growth?
This currency market move feels like each central bank is singing its own tune.
Japan is back to moderate recovery again, can we really trust that narrative?
Indonesia's foreign reserves at least stabilized, but everywhere else is getting anxious.
Is this rate-cutting cycle really coming to an end? But I think it's too early.
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Degen4Breakfast
· 01-08 07:57
87.5% of strategists are bearish on the dollar? Are the remaining 12.5% being genuine or just pretending, haha
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The ECB is being cautious, and GDP keeps declining. Europe really seems to be falling behind
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Global growth at 2.7%? Sounds like a minor patch-up job for 2024's dismal performance. Nothing to get excited about
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Is the RBA's hawkish signal for real? Feels like the rate-cutting cycle should have ended long ago
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US GDP jumped from 1.9 to 2.0. They sure know how to hype the stimulus shot. This is supposed to be bullish?
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Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves broke the 150 billion mark. Why isn't anyone talking about this?
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Not raising rates until March 2027? The ECB is basically throwing in the towel now
為替市場には今日注目すべき情報がいくつかあります。
まずは米ドルから。米国財務省の顧問Lavorgnaは公に声明を出し、連邦準備制度は引き続き利下げ路線を進めるべきだと考えています。市場もこの予想に従っており、ロイターの調査によると、87.5%のストラテジストが1月末までに米ドルは安定またはネット・ショートに転じると判断しています。ただし、良いニュースもあります。国連の最新報告によると、米国の2026年のGDP成長率は1.9%からわずかに2.0%に引き上げられる見込みで、市場にとっては一服の弾みとなるでしょう。
一方、ユーロは別の局面を呈しています。トレーダーたちは欧州中央銀行の利上げ期待を大きく削減しており、最初の利上げの予想は2027年3月に後ろ倒しされています。経済のファンダメンタルズも楽観的ではなく、EUの2026年の成長予測は1.5%から1.3%に下方修正されており、成長の勢いは明らかに弱まっています。
世界全体を見ると、2026年の経済成長率は2.7%に低下すると予測されています。各国の中央銀行の動きもまちまちです。日本銀行は緩やかな回復と賃上げ意欲の高まりを観察しています。韓国の財務相は為替レートの安定を誓い、インドネシアの外貨準備高は1565億ドルに増加しています。オーストラリア連邦準備銀行の副総裁はハト派的なシグナルを出し、中期的なインフレ圧力を強調し、これまでの数回の利下げはこのサイクルの終わりを示している可能性を示唆しています。