Here are some clues that BTC may experience a big dump

2024.11.23 11:42am

Technical level

- Key resistance level: According to traders' observations, there is a significant sell wall for BTC between 99,300 to 100,000 US dollars. Despite a slight decrease in liquidity, it is still close to 300 million US dollars, which may hinder further price pump and trigger dumping.
- Derivatives market risk: The outstanding Close Position contracts of BTC contracts soared to $63 billion, with an implied Volatility rise to 60, indicating a higher possibility of significant market Fluctuation in the future. In the short term, capital tends to lock in profits, which may cause prices to fluctuate significantly around $100,000.

Market sentiment

- Psychological price impact: $100,000 is an important psychological level, and investors may re-evaluate their positions at this price, leading to natural selling points.
- Excessive optimism: The recent rapid pump of BTC prices has led to an overall optimistic market sentiment. However, excessive optimism often carries risks. Once the market sentiment turns, it may trigger large-scale dumping.

Funds Flow

- ETF fund inflows slowing down: On Thursday, the trading inflow of BTC Spot exchange traded funds exceeded $1 billion, but some analysts pointed out that the recent cooling trend in BTC ETF demand, if the subsequent fund inflows continue to decrease, will be difficult to support its price to continue pumping.
- Institutional profit-taking: After a significant pump in the price of BTC, some institutional investors may choose to take profits, triggering a chain reaction in the market and causing the price to fall.

Policy regulation

- Regulatory policy uncertainty: Despite the market's expectations for a change in Cryptocurrency policy after the resignation of the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States, the specific regulatory policy for the future is still unclear. New regulatory measures or policy changes may trigger market uncertainty, leading to investor panic dumping.
- Global regulatory attitude: By 2024, governments around the world are gradually tightening their regulation of Virtual Money, with financial regulatory policies tightening, which may indirectly impact the price of Bitcoin.

Macroeconomics

- monetary policy adjustments: If the monetary policy of major economies' Central Banks, such as the Federal Reserve, is adjusted in a way that is unfavorable to BTC, such as an increase in interest rate expectations, it may cause investors to transfer funds from BTC to other more attractive assets, thereby putting pressure on BTC prices.
- Economic situation changes: The uncertainty of the global economy remains. If the economic situation worsens, investors' risk appetite may decrease, leading to a corresponding decrease in demand for high-risk assets like Bitcoin, thereby causing a big dump in price.