#BTC# 🟥 short positions dominant strategy (probability 70%)

Trigger condition:

The price rebounded near EMA30 (103,499.7) and stagnated (long upper shadow on the candlestick + RSI6<40)

Or directly break below the lower Bollinger band at 101,523.5 with high volume.
Operation:

Short positions near the rebound to 103,500, or chase short positions after breaking 101,523.

Target 1: Previous low 93,308.3 (-9.5%)

Target 2: Low point of 81,999.3 in 2023 (备用 after stop loss)

Stop Loss: EMA15 above (105,800)

🟩 Long positions counterattack conditions (probability 25%)

Trigger Conditions (must all be met):

Volume breakout above EMA30 (103,499.7) (Vol > 3 billion)

The MACD bars have narrowed to within -500 + KDJ has formed a golden cross (K>D)

RSI6 breaks through 45
Operation:

Breakthrough pullback at 103,500, try going long with light positions.

Target 1: EMA5 (105, 104.8, +1.1%)

Target 2: Bollinger midline 106,359.5 (+2.7%)

Stop loss: 103,000 (exit at psychological level)

⬜ Wait-and-see strategy (probability 5%)

The price continues to fluctuate in the range of 101,523-103,500, and:

MACD bar fluctuation < 200

The J value of KDJ is dull within ±10.