Corporate and government Bitcoin financial strategy "Hold 20% of BTC supply by 2026" Bitwise Report

Table of Contents* 1. Acceleration of Bitcoin Holdings by Companies and Governments

• 2. Five Key Sectors Driving Bitcoin Demand
• 3. The Bitcoin version of the DeFi (Decentralized Finance) market is rapidly expanding.

• 3.1. The Rise of BTCfi (Bitcoin Decentralized Finance)

• 4. The "strategic assetization" of Bitcoin is accelerating

Acceleration of Bitcoin Holdings by Companies and Governments

On May 23, 2025, the U.S. cryptocurrency management company Bitwise and UTXO Management released a joint report, indicating that more than 20% of Bitcoin (BTC) supply could be held by corporations and governments by the end of 2026.

As a background, it is noted that the movement for companies and governments to incorporate Bitcoin into their financial strategies is accelerating, and if this prediction materializes, the Holdings of Bitcoin will reach approximately 4,269,000 BTC (about 20.3%), with a valuation of about $427 billion (approximately 60 trillion yen).

In addition, it has been pointed out that large-scale institutional investors and nations may become a "dominant force" in the Bitcoin market due to long-term Holdings.

On the other hand, there are also views that the large Holdings of Bitcoin by these entities can have a significant impact on liquidity and price formation, potentially stabilizing the price fluctuations of Bitcoin and further enhancing its reliability as an asset.

5 Key Sectors Driving Bitcoin Demand

The report categorizes the demand for Bitcoin by institutional investors into several major sectors and presents forecasts for the inflow of funds and BTC Holdings for each. The five main sectors and their forecast values are as follows.

• Nation (Government)
  BTC Holdings as reserve assets by government sectors in the United States, El Salvador, Bhutan, and others. Assuming a scenario where each country reallocates 5% of its foreign reserves from gold to BTC, it is estimated that this could result in an inflow of approximately 1.617 million BTC (7.7%) and around 162 billion dollars.
• Wealth Management Platform Investment in BTC by the wealth management divisions of major banks and securities firms. Assuming that 0.2% of the total customer assets of approximately $60 trillion are allocated to BTC spot ETFs, a demand of about 1.2 million BTC (5.7%) and $120 billion is anticipated.
• Public Company
  BTC holdings as corporate finance are expanding, primarily among US companies such as Strategy Company. Currently, the total BTC holdings by publicly listed companies worldwide are estimated to exceed 600,000 BTC. Due to changes in accounting rules and following the lead of pioneering companies, there is a possibility of acquiring an additional approximately 1.18 million BTC (5.6%), totaling 117.8 billion dollars.
• State Government of the United States Moves to legalize the acquisition of Bitcoin by state government funds in several states, including Texas and New Hampshire. The report models cases where "state reserve bills" have been enacted in 13 states, calculating that there is a purchasing potential of approximately 196,000 BTC (0.93%) or $19.6 billion across state governments.
• Government Fund Investment in BTC by government funds (sovereign wealth funds) such as the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and the Norwegian Government Pension Fund. The conservative scenario anticipates a demand of approximately 78,000 BTC (0.37%) and 7.8 billion dollars.

Adding these five areas together, it amounts to approximately 4.27 million BTC (20.3%), and the projected total inflow of funds will reach 427 billion dollars.

Bitcoin version DeFi (Decentralized Finance) market is rapidly expanding

Bitwise positions this unprecedented scale of institutional capital inflow as part of a game-theoretical development towards "hyper-Bitcoinization."

The report also indicates that "at least four new countries and five regions in the Americas will adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve by 2026," highlighting the potential for further expansion of Bitcoin holdings by national and local governments.

BTCfi (Bitcoin Decentralized Finance) の台頭

Furthermore, it is predicted that after the large Holdings by institutional investors, there will be an expansion of interest in Bitcoin-denominated yield services.

The report analyzes that with the expansion of holdings due to the lifting of the Bitcoin ETF ban, the emergence of decentralized financial services (BTCfi) for Bitcoin is likely to become a new trend in the pursuit of yield utilizing BTC.

It is estimated that if the market capitalization of Bitcoin reaches $2 trillion (approximately ¥285 trillion) in the future, just 5% of that will be utilized for financial services such as on-chain lending, arbitrage trading, and bridge fees, forming a new Bitcoin financial market worth approximately $100 billion (approximately ¥14 trillion).

This indicates that the trend of pursuing BTC-denominated yields (BTCfi) will become more prominent by around 2026, becoming an important theme for long-term Bitcoin holders.

The "Strategic Assetization" of Bitcoin Accelerates

As indicated by the report on Bitwise and UTXO management, the environment surrounding Bitcoin is transitioning from traditional speculative frenzy to a phase where it is viewed as a strategic asset by nations and corporations.

If governments, companies, and state governments in various countries actively accumulate BTC, the number of circulating coins will decrease, strengthening the factors that support market prices. This has been pointed out as the "game-theoretical competition (the chain reaction caused by the following of other companies and countries)" that will force competitors and other countries to follow suit.

In the United States, following the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the influx of institutional investor money has accelerated, and this flow of funds is pushing Bitcoin to become an entity that cannot be ignored by various countries and companies.

In the future, there is great attention from global financial authorities and investors on whether Bitcoin will be positioned as a "strategic reserve asset of the digital age" alongside gold.

*The price is converted at the rate at the time of writing (1 dollar = 142.63 yen)

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Source: Joint Report

Written and translated by: BITTIMES Editorial Department

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