Shouchuang Futures: Situasi geopolitik mungkin semakin memburuk, harga berjangka PX mengikuti harga minyak mentah rebound setelah berhenti jatuh

Spot market, on April 1st CFR China PX price was $1192/ton, down $37/ton from the previous trading day.
On April 2nd, PX market offers for May delivery were $1256/ton, and June transactions were $1240/ton.
In terms of costs, Trump delivered a speech stating that in the next two to three weeks, there will be extremely severe strikes on Iran, and if no agreement is reached, power plants in Iran will be targeted.
The geopolitical situation may further escalate, causing international oil prices to rebound after falling.
Regarding supply, Guangdong Petrochemical’s 2.6 million-ton PX unit reduced its load to 70% due to raw material supply issues.
Qingdao Lidong’s 1 million-ton PX was scheduled for maintenance on March 31st and is expected to restart in early May.
This week, PX loadings in Asia and domestically continued to decline.
Currently, the geopolitical conflict may escalate further, and key shipping routes remain blocked, with the possibility of further reductions in PX load in the future.
On the demand side, lower processing fees have led to increased PTA maintenance plans, and at the same time, negative feedback from terminal users has appeared, with polyester and weaving operations showing some decline.
In summary, although demand has marginally weakened, the geopolitical situation has escalated again, crude oil prices have rebounded significantly, and expectations for tightening PX supply remain strong.
Combined with rising costs and tightening supply, it is expected that short-term PX futures will remain volatile with a slight upward bias.
Attention should be paid to the progress of geopolitical developments, crude oil price trends, and changes in upstream and downstream plant operations.
(First Venture Futures)