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High-level fluctuation awaits development of US-Iran situation—In-depth analysis of gold price movement today

International spot gold (XAU/USD) quotes around $4,786.69 per ounce, up approximately $35.89 ( +0.75%) from the previous trading day's close, with an overall stable trend but unclear direction. The current price is a key technical battleground zone, with the strong resistance level at $4,800 ahead—whether to break upward or retreat remains to be seen.

👉 Technical indicator analysis

1. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

Based on recent technical data (referencing the 1-hour chart on April 13), RSI(14) is at 55.42, in a neutral to slightly bullish zone.

2. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) daily chart MACD remains above the midline, indicating the medium-term upward trend still exists. However, the 1-hour MACD shows **-0.12**, indicating short-term momentum has turned negative—since the March high, the correction phase has caused the fast line to cross below the slow line.

MACD divergence across two timeframes:

Daily: MACD above the midline, medium-term trend remains bullish, no death cross

1-hour: MACD negative, short-term momentum weak, bulls and bears still in stalemate

3. Moving average system

20-day moving average: estimated around $4,700–4,750, currently above this level, indicating a short-term bullish pattern

50-day moving average: around $4,600, serving as an important medium-term support during this correction

200-day moving average: around $4,200, representing the bottom line of the long-term bull market, still some distance from the current price

👉 Market sentiment: split evenly

According to this week's market survey data:

Wall Street analysts: 50% bullish / 50% bearish—rare balanced scenario

Retail investors: 63% optimistic

This split itself is informative. Institutions are waiting for clearer signals (PPI, breakthroughs or ruptures in US-Iran diplomacy), while retail investors tend to add positions on dips based on long-term bullish faith in gold. When divergence is so pronounced, it often indicates the market is at a critical point of direction choice.

👉 Fundamental analysis

1. US-Iran situation—Uncontrolled "abnormal" geopolitical premium

Over the weekend, talks in Islamabad broke down again, and the US military announced a comprehensive maritime blockade of Iranian ports. Brent crude oil returned above $100 per barrel, and inflation expectations rose accordingly.

However, a key "counterlogic" deserves special attention: geopolitical crises usually benefit gold, but in this cycle, gold prices were suppressed during certain periods. The reason lies in the chain of oil prices—inflation—interest rate hike expectations, which is being double-pressed by a strong dollar and rising bond yields—this is the most counterintuitive and critical logical structure in gold trading in 2026.

2. CPI and PPI data—Inflation as a double-edged sword

US March CPI annual rate rose to 3.3% (highest since May 2024), with a monthly increase of 0.9% (largest single-month increase since mid-2022). Expectations for rate cuts have been significantly compressed, with the December meeting rate cut probability dropping sharply from 58 basis points to about 27%, and the April meeting today has a 0% chance of rate cuts.

Within today’s session, US March PPI data will be released, which is the most important macro event to watch in the coming hours. If PPI exceeds expectations again, short-term pressure on gold increases; if PPI is below expectations, it opens a window for rate cut expectations to loosen, favoring a recovery in gold prices.

3. US dollar strength—The most direct short-term pressure source

The US dollar index remains strong amid high inflation and low rate cut expectations, and the negative correlation between gold and the dollar remains sensitive in the current environment. Several institutional analysts have already listed "US dollar trend" as the most direct factor guiding gold’s short-term direction.

👉 Trading strategy:

Currently, with the US-Iran situation uncertain, the market is in a balanced state. For upcoming positions, Xiao Caishen suggests maintaining a "short-term short, long-term long" approach. In the short term, consider short positions around the strong resistance at 4800; for the long term, wait until the price falls back to around 4100–4200 to establish long positions. After all, from a long-term perspective, gold narrates a macro story about the restructuring of the global monetary system, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank paradigm shifts. Within this framework, every correction could be a structural buying opportunity.