#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Virtual currencies generally have been cut in half, where are they currently positioned

Market in April for cryptocurrencies is in a state that makes people anxious and conflicted. Bitcoin has fallen from its October 2025 historical high of $126,080 down to around $70,000, a retracement of nearly 47%. Altcoins are even more brutal—Ethereum dropped to about $2,200, Ripple to $1.33, Solana to $82, and the GMCI30 index tracking the top 30 cryptocurrencies worldwide remains at a low level. Facing such a “cut in half” market, the most concerned question for investors is: Have we reached the bottom? Is now the time to buy in, or should we continue to wait and see?
01 Bull and bear disagreement: where exactly is the market?
The current contradictory signals in the market can be summarized in one sentence—institutions are buying, retail investors are panicking, technicals are changing, macro pressures are mounting.
The bullish side has big players like Goldman Sachs standing behind them. Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro explicitly pointed out in a research report in early April that the crypto market “may have already touched the cycle bottom.” His core argument is: after four consecutive months of net outflows, in March, $1.32 billion of institutional funds re-entered Bitcoin spot ETFs, indicating a shift from speculative selling to long-term capital accumulation. Yaro defines the $68,000 to $71,000 range as Bitcoin’s support zone and believes leverage liquidations have basically been completed.
Meanwhile, on-chain data also signals a bottom. The MVRV Z-Score is compressing, an indicator historically highly correlated with major cycle lows; the 720-day trend Bitcoin indicator (TBBI) has fallen below 20, also indicating the end of a long-term decline. The number of Bitcoins held by accumulation addresses has surged from 2 million at the start of 2024 to 4.37 million on April 7, showing that long-term holders are continuously accumulating amid market panic.
Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have fallen to a two-year low, with institutions continuously “buying the dip” in panic.
But the bearish voices cannot be ignored either. Veteran trader Peter Brandt pointed out that Bitcoin’s current price structure is incomplete, and the market still needs to go through a downward shakeout. He expects the price to fall below $66,000 to clear out bullish liquidity before a meaningful rally can form.
CryptoQuant analyst oro_crypto also warned that the recent rebound from $66,000 to $72,000 was driven entirely by futures leverage and lacked spot buying support, making it “source-less water.” Some analysts, based on historical cycle patterns, believe it’s still too early. Crypto analyst @CryptoTice_ pointed out that according to the patterns of the last four halving cycles, the true bottom usually forms between 800 and 950 days after the halving, corresponding to Q4 2026, not the current stage. He also emphasized that the real bottom requires a complete collapse of market confidence and participant capitulation, whereas currently, some are still actively buying and expecting a short-term rebound.
02 Macro environment: hawkish Fed and geopolitical pressures
The macro environment in 2026 is not friendly to cryptocurrencies. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate remains in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, with inflation expectations still above the 2% target. March’s CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, and although core CPI was below the expected 2.7%, market expectations for rate cuts continue to be delayed—on Polymarket, the probability of no rate cut in 2026 has surged from about 2.9% in mid-January to 35.9%. More troubling, CME interest rate swaps show an 87.6% chance of holding rates steady in April, but the rate hike expectation has doubled to 12.4% since the beginning of the month.
A new Fed paper even found that since 2021, Bitcoin and Ethereum increasingly track macro signals like US inflation and employment data, showing high correlation with risk assets. After ETF launches, the correlation between Bitcoin and Fed policy has reversed, with institutional investors now pricing in rate changes 6 to 12 months in advance.
On the geopolitical front, the Iran-U.S. talks in Islamabad broke down after 21 hours, the U.S. announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude oil surged to $98 per barrel. After the news, Bitcoin dropped about 3% within 24 hours to around $70,600. For cryptocurrencies, geopolitical conflicts’ impact can no longer be ignored—they are no longer “digital gold” safe havens but are now highly correlated with risk sentiment. As BTC Markets analysts said, current geopolitical news is dominating short-term crypto market movements.
03 Technical analysis: cup-and-handle formation forming, but momentum uncertain
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s daily chart is forming a classic cup-and-handle pattern. The neckline is between $73,151 and $73,240. If the price can close above this level, the measured target is about 11%, pointing to around $81,720. However, there are concerns. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows a “hidden bearish divergence”—from March 4 to April 9, Bitcoin’s price made lower highs, while RSI made higher highs, suggesting the downtrend may not be over yet, and the current rebound might still need further consolidation.
Key support levels are currently testing the 50-day exponential moving average at about $70,700. Resistance is at $73,750 to $74,400. If the price falls below the 50-day EMA, it could further retrace to around $60,000. The futures market’s negative funding rate (-6%) and high short positions increase the likelihood of a short squeeze—once the price breaks resistance, a large number of short positions could be liquidated, pushing a rapid rebound.
04 Market liquidity: stablecoin inflows and ETF funds hit three-month high
The most recent notable signal comes from the capital side. From April 6 to 12, the market experienced a $2.56 billion inflow of stablecoins, with spot and perpetual contract trading volume on centralized exchanges both increasing week-over-week. On-chain data shows funds are gradually flowing back from stablecoins to Bitcoin. Institutional inflows are also a positive sign. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $786 million last week, the strongest since February; on April 13, there was a single-day net inflow of $471 million, the largest in about three months. Strategy firms bought 13,927 Bitcoins during this period, worth about $1 billion. The increase in institutional holdings and CME Bitcoin futures open interest surpassing Binance’s first time indicate that the crypto market is shifting from a retail-led speculative environment to a more institutional-driven structural pattern.
05 Institutional views: optimism from the bulls, doubts from the cautious
Reviewing recent institutional and analyst opinions, the bullish side includes: Goldman Sachs believes the market may have already touched the cycle bottom; Bernstein maintains a Bitcoin target price of $150,000 by the end of 2026; and Tom Lee from Fundstrat estimates Bitcoin could reach $200,000 to $250,000.
But cautious voices also warn investors: Bitf warns April will be a critical month to determine whether rate expectations can be maintained; and several institutional analysts point out that resolving US-Iran conflicts and whether Bitcoin can return to its historical highs are necessary conditions for the next bull run. ZFX Shanhai Securities’ analysis is more moderate, suggesting Bitcoin is currently in a low-volatility consolidation phase, with short-term sentiment neutral to weak but with potential for rebound. Multiple viewpoints converge on the same conclusion: the current position shows characteristics of a bottom zone, but the ultimate direction depends on whether macro variables can improve substantially. As André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, said, Bitcoin’s risk-reward ratio is “significantly tilted in favor,” but this depends on geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions aligning.
Conclusion: how to respond to the current bottom game? Returning to the initial question: after virtual currencies have been cut in half, is this the bottom?
Objectively, signals supporting the formation of a bottom are increasing—continuous institutional inflows, accelerated on-chain accumulation, stablecoin fund reflows, and gradually improving technical patterns. But uncertainties are equally significant—unclear macro rate cut paths, unresolved geopolitical conflicts, and insufficient short-term momentum for rebounds. For ordinary investors, the following variables are worth continuous monitoring:
Whether ETF inflows can persist—this is the most direct indicator of institutional sentiment;
The evolution of US-Iran tensions—geopolitical conflicts are the biggest short-term disturbance variable;
The Fed’s statements at the April FOMC meeting—interest rate decisions will directly impact risk asset valuations;
Whether Bitcoin can hold above $70,000—this is a key signal for a technical turnaround.
In April 2026, the crypto market, as many analysts have said, is in a “test of discipline” phase. The market bottom is never a specific price point but a range; confirming the bottom is not based on any single indicator but on the resonance of multiple signals.