Chief Economist Ming Ming dari CITIC Securities: Diperkirakan akan ada 1-2 kali penurunan suku bunga dan 1 kali penurunan cadangan wajib minimum sepanjang tahun

Chief Economist of CITIC Securities and FICC Chief Analyst Ming Ming stated during the CITIC Securities 2026 Spring Capital Market Forum that China’s real GDP growth rate in 2026 may remain around 4.9%, with the annual growth potentially showing a “V” shape, inflation rising could help drive a rapid rebound in nominal GDP, and the GDP deflator index is expected to shift from negative to positive. In 2026, fiscal policy will be moderately expansionary, with a deficit ratio maintained at 4%; monetary policy has room for “flexible and efficient use” of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, with an expected 1-2 interest rate cuts and 1 reserve requirement ratio cut throughout the year, and structural tools will play a greater role. Equity assets are relatively attractive amid recovery and rising inflation, short-term government bond yields are likely to fluctuate around 1.8%, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate modestly in a weak dollar environment. (Cailian Press)