Cadangan devisi luar negeri bulan Maret stabil di $3.3 triliun, bank sentral terus menambah emas selama 17 bulan berturut-turut

Reporter He Jueyuan, Securities Times

On April 7, the latest statistics released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that as of the end of March 2026, the size of China’s foreign exchange reserves was $3.34T, down by $85.7 billion from the end of February, a decline of 2.5%. At present, China’s foreign exchange reserves are still at a high level over the past 10 years, remaining stable for 8 consecutive months above $3.3 trillion.

Regarding the month-on-month decline in the foreign exchange reserves in March, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange analyzed that, affected by factors such as the global macro environment, the monetary policies of major economies, and expectations, the U.S. dollar index rose and the prices of major global financial assets fell. Under the combined impact of factors including currency conversion and changes in asset prices, the foreign exchange reserves declined that month.

Since March, the situation in Iran has triggered major volatility in global assets. Oil prices have surged, and global asset prices have fallen broadly. Driven by the warming up of expectations of interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the return of safe-haven funds, the U.S. dollar index strengthened in March and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose.

“Rising oil prices have boosted inflation expectations; the market has even started to bet on further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Supported by two factors—higher interest rates staying longer and the return of safe-haven funds—the U.S. dollar index has continued its strengthening trend.” Minsheng Bank’s chief economist Wen Bin told Securities Times reporter.

From the exchange-rate factor perspective, in March the U.S. dollar index rose month-on-month by 2.4%, and during the month it once broke above the 100 level. Non-U.S. dollar currencies overall weakened, thereby lowering the size of foreign exchange reserves denominated in U.S. dollars.

From the asset price factor perspective, in March the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased by 33 basis points to 4.3%. Global stock markets saw intense volatility and overall moved downward, and the prices of various major financial assets generally declined.

Against the backdrop of external risk shocks increasing, in March China’s foreign exchange reserves remained firmly above $3.3 trillion, providing a sturdier safety cushion for two-way fluctuations in the exchange rate. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange pointed out that China’s economic operations are generally steady, progressing while maintaining stability. Solid results have been achieved in high-quality development, providing support for keeping foreign exchange reserves basically stable.

“With the switch in growth momentum among major economies, there is limited room for the U.S. dollar index to rise one-way.” Pan Ming, a specially appointed senior research fellow at the National Finance and Development Laboratory, told reporters. Once the Federal Reserve’s policy shift becomes clear, the exchange-rate conversion factor will change from “drag” to “contribution,” driving a rebound in the size of foreign exchange reserves.

China’s foreign exchange reserves mainly come from trade surpluses, foreign direct investment, and capital flows. Looking ahead to the next stage, Wen Bin believes that exports will continue to play the basic role of the international balance of payments: against the backdrop of an oil-price shock to the global production and supply chain, China’s advantages in new energy manufacturing and in the entire industrial chain will be further highlighted. In terms of cross-border capital flows, as the level of facilitation for cross-border investment and financing in China continues to improve, foreign direct investment will maintain steady operations. At the same time, the valuation advantage and allocation value of renminbi assets are becoming more prominent, and portfolio investment is expected to continue to see a reasonable scale of inflows.

The official reserves asset data updated that day also showed that as of the end of March 2026, China’s official gold reserves were 74.38 million ounces, up by 160k ounces from the end of the previous month. This is the first time since March 2025 that China’s central bank increased its monthly gold holdings by more than 100k ounces. Currently, the central bank has been adding gold for 17 consecutive months.

Gold is an important component of the diversified composition of international reserves for countries, and it has advantages such as hedging against risks, resisting inflation, and long-term preservation of value and appreciation. Since March, gold prices have undergone intense adjustments. With respect to the reasons for the sharp drop in that month, in a research report, Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities and head of the research institute, pointed out that it mainly includes: geopolitical developments boosting inflation upward and expectations of monetary tightening, profit-taking on funds that had reached high levels, and liquidity panic caused by stock market volatility leading to gold’s passive selling pressure.

“Non-U.S. central banks’ willingness to buy gold remains strong, and it is expected to continue to push up the gold price’s midpoint.” Luo Zhiheng said. Increasing holdings of gold has become an important choice for non-U.S. central banks to enhance financial security. Emerging market central banks are especially active, and there is still significant room for reserves growth.

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            Foreign exchange
                                                            Gold