Huang Lichen: Kekhawatiran inflasi menekan ekspektasi penurunan suku bunga, rebound emas terbatas secara signifikan

6 April, last Friday, because of a US public holiday, the gold market was closed for the whole day. Regarding the trading ideas for next Monday, we recommend that everyone first focus on the support strength at 4600 and 4550 USD. For the rebound space, look at 4700 and 4800 USD. Judging from the subsequent trend, on this Monday the gold market opened lower, fell to around 4600 USD to stabilize, rebounded to 4678 USD but met resistance. Currently, it is trading at 4649 USD. Continue to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, which is basically consistent with our earlier expectations.

Wolfinance’s star-level analyst believes that last week gold stabilized and rose at one point, breaking to a new high over the past week. This was because the United States released a ceasefire signal, indicating that the war would end within two to three weeks, which led to a short-term pullback in oil prices, a decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, and provided support for gold’s rebound. However, by last Thursday, Trump made the latest remarks on the Iran issue, without giving a timetable for ending the war, and also clearly stated that in the coming weeks he would continue to push forward military actions against Iran. The market’s concern about a disruption in energy supply intensified again, causing oil prices to surge in the short term, nearly recouping all the losses from that week. The US dollar and US Treasury yields rebounded, and gold ran into resistance and fell again.

On this Monday, gold opened lower, stabilized, and rebounded slightly, because relevant individuals disclosed that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a possible ceasefire agreement that may last 45 days. This agreement is expected to ultimately end the war. However, gold’s rebound has been clearly limited. Over the past period of time, oil prices have risen sharply due to the conflict, which has intensified inflation concerns. This has led to increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep high interest rates for a longer time. High-rate expectations put downward pressure on gold.

On the daily chart, after gold stabilized and rose then met resistance, it has temporarily stabilized above 4600 USD and continues to run in a range-bound trend. For support below, you can pay attention to the 4600 USD whole-number level. This is the day’s gold price low, as well as the level where the prior sharp sell-off in gold bottomed and rebounded but then met resistance. Next, pay attention to around 4550 USD, near last Thursday’s gold falling low. For resistance above, you can focus on the level of 4700 USD, where last Thursday’s gold dipped to its low and then rebounded to form a high. Next, focus on the level where gold began to fall after rising but meeting resistance on last Thursday at 4800 USD. The 5-day moving average forms a golden cross upward; the MACD indicator forms a golden cross, showing that gold has demand for a rebound. However, the KDJ and RSI indicators form a golden cross but turn downward, indicating that the rebound is still clearly suppressed.

Gold weekend reference: According to disclosures from relevant individuals, the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a possible ceasefire agreement that may last 45 days. Gold has halted the decline and stabilized in the short term, but due to inflation concerns weighing on rate-cut expectations, the gold rebound has been clearly limited. In terms of trading, it is recommended to treat it with a range-bound approach. Below, keep an eye on the support strength at 4600 and 4550 USD. For rebound space, continue to focus on 4700 and 4800 USD.

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Responsible editor: Chen Ping