Hexun Investment Advisor Liu Changsong: Jika pada hari Jumat turun, saat ketakutan bisa mengendalikan posisi untuk membeli saat harga rendah

2 April, He Xun Gu Yan Liu Chang song said that A-share market fell on shrinking volume, with the Shanghai Composite index down 0.74%, the average stock price index down 1.83%, the loss-making effect was obvious, with 4,378 stocks waiting to rise throughout the day, which made people feel uncomfortable. In the recent period, the market is in a volatile range, which is suitable for buying low and selling high, meaning when others are afraid you buy on weakness, and when others are greedy you sell on strength.

Judging from the intraday trend of the A-share market, the 5-day moving average is worth paying attention to. After breaking the 10-day moving average during the day, it closed at the 5-day moving average level of 3919 points, and the close was also at this level, indicating stronger control by major players. Total trading volume for the whole day was 1.858 trillion, relatively small in volume; the market fell more, indicating that the buy-support below is not strong. This is mainly influenced by the pre-holiday effect, because many big funds are worried that during the holiday period there may be disruptive factors from outside.

If tomorrow it drops downward and you need to buy on weakness when everyone is fearful, you can manage your position size. Position sizing is because, from the time cycle perspective, next Tuesday is the time-cycle node. The 10-day moving average moving down will be tested repeatedly; next week there is hope for a turn that will provide support to the index. Today during the day it broke the 10-day moving average and closed at the 5-day moving average of 3919 points. If tomorrow it breaks the 10-day moving average as it steps down, you can buy on weakness, but you need to manage your position size; if it is stepped on again at the market open next week, that would also be a chance to buy on weakness.

From the technical structure perspective, on the 30-minute level, as long as a golden cross forms, there will be a rebound; if no golden cross forms, it will repair to around 20. On the 15-minute level, there is a possibility of a double golden cross, but it depends on whether tomorrow’s price can hold the level. If it cannot hold, the structure will become more complex. On the bigger structure, on the daily chart level, in the absence of an effective double golden cross, it is a volatile range market, which is the situation for the Shanghai Composite.

The Shenzhen index fell 1.6%; its structure is similar to the Shanghai Composite. On the 30-minute level, it will repair to around 20. On the 60-minute level, tomorrow it is also expected to repair to around 20, so tomorrow you can buy on weakness by controlling your position size. Controlling your position size is because during the holiday period there is event-driven uncertainty, and all indices still have a double-death pattern on the daily chart level, so there is no need to gamble.

The ChiNext index today broke the prior low point, making it relatively weaker; the STAR Market 50 index yesterday’s low was not broken. Today it is close to that level, but the close did not break it. Different indices move in different directions; on the daily chart level, the rhythm of a double golden cross at lower levels will be smoother. Without a double golden cross, the trend will be relatively more tangled.

(Editor-in-charge: Cui Chen HX015)

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