Huatai Sekuritas: Pengendalian Selat Hormuz selama lebih dari sebulan memperdalam gangguan pasokan rantai petrokimia Asia

People’s Financial News 2 April, Huatai Securities research report states that after more than a month of control in the Strait of Hormuz, the disruption of oil supply has led to a widespread reduction in load across Asia’s petrochemical industry chain, with cost increases and tighter supply driving product prices to rise broadly. The international price spread between diesel and jet fuel has surged, ethylene and propylene runs have been held back by price increases being blocked due to insufficient demand, while the aromatics chain has shown differentiated performance based on the resilience of product demand. Asian countries face different risks due to differences in their levels of strategic petroleum reserves and alternative energy sources, with China’s supply-chain break risk relatively lower. Meanwhile, a contraction in industry capital expenditures and carbon dual control will drive optimization of the supply landscape, and this supply disruption is expected to accelerate the optimization of Asia’s petrochemical industry structure. As uncertainty in the situation declines subsequently, downstream inventory replenishment demand is expected to be released, which could improve profitability in chemical products. In the long term, this event will accelerate the strategic steps for China’s energy to be independently controllable, and it is expected that the development pace of oil-demand substitution routes such as modern coal-to-chemicals, green hydrogen, and new energy will speed up, thereby gradually reducing dependence on imported oil and gas.