🔥 Dual bullish signals collide with geopolitical fog, where will your bullets aim this week?

Last night, the market received two "big gifts":

· Trump sent a signal of ceasefire between the US and Iran, the tension in the Strait of Hormuz seems to have eased;
· Powell directly stated "policy is in a safe zone," dousing expectations of rate hikes with a bucket of cold water.

On one side, geopolitical risks are cooling down, and on the other, liquidity expectations are improving. This is considered a "dream team" for risk assets.

But the question is: is this the start of a reversal, or just another trap of false signals?

🎯 First, the conclusion: the window is short, don’t get too involved

Trump’s “ceasefire” is more of a tactical adjustment, not a strategic reconciliation. The US-Iran situation is far from over.
Powell’s “dovish” stance is also expected — inflation is under control, and there’s no need to add drama during an election year.

Therefore, the essence of this market movement is: emotional recovery + short covering.
The big trend has not yet emerged.

⛽ Crude Oil: The most intense game, beware if you have a weak heart

Oil prices have already priced in some geopolitical cooling last week. If no new conflicts erupt this week, there may be short-term correction pressure.
But note: as long as the Strait of Hormuz is not completely calm for a day, crude oil still has the gene of “pulse-like surges.”
Strategy: only short-term trading, buy on sharp dips, sell on sharp rises, don’t hold on to battles.

🪙 Gold: Falling is an opportunity, don’t expect a crash

Gold’s current support is very strong: rate cut expectations + central bank buying + safe-haven bottom holdings.
Even if geopolitical sentiment cools, the space for gold price correction is limited.
For ordinary players, gold is the most tolerant option in this wave of market — hold steady, sleep well.

📈 Crypto: The biggest beneficiary of liquidity improvement, but beware of “good news exhausted”

Powell’s statement directly benefits risk assets, and crypto is one of them.
But crypto has its own rhythm: after the halving, the narrative vacuum period needs new catalysts to take over.
If ETF funds do not show obvious inflows this week, rebounding to key resistance levels (such as BTC around 73,000) may encounter resistance.
Suitable for swing traders, be cautious when chasing highs.

$BTC ‌

📌 Weekly Operation Manual

· Conservative: gradually build positions on gold’s correction, hold steady.
· Aggressive: buy during sharp crude oil dips, quick in and out; test longs at key support levels (BTC 68,000-69,000), exit if broken.
· Spectator: wait until there’s real trouble between US and Iran before taking action.
#川普釋放停戰訊號