Kehilangan 4000 poin! Indeks Shanghai Composite mencatat level terendah tahun ini, lebih dari 4700 saham menunjukkan kecenderungan hijau namun melemah.

Media this paper (chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Shuai Kecong reports from Beijing

On March 20, 2026, China’s A-share three major indexes closed with mixed performances: the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 1% to 3957 points, dropping below the 4000-point level and setting a new intra-year low; the ChiNext Index surged and then pulled back, closing up by more than 1%. Over the whole market, more than 4700 individual stocks were in the red; most热门 industry sector板块 declined.

A related person at the well-known private fund firm Starstone Investment told Huaxia Times reporters that after the recent pullback, the market at this level should not be overly pessimistic. While high oil prices may cause overseas economies to fall into stagflation, China’s overall inflation pressure is not large. Domestic policy targets are clear and tools are sufficient, and disruptions to global supply chains caused by the Middle East conflict may be an opportunity to verify China’s advantage in economic stability. The space for valuations that have been continuously rising this year is limited; the recovery of corporate earnings in the next phase is the key for A-shares to sustain a bull market.

The Shanghai Composite Index Breaks Below 4000 Points

On March 20, the three major A-share indexes opened with mixed performances. Intraday, the trend clearly diverged: the Shanghai Composite Index continued to trade sideways and move lower, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index showed a pattern of rallying and then pulling back.

As of the close that day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.24%, to 3957.05 points, marking the first time within the year it closed below 4000 points; the Shenzhen Component Index closed down 0.25%, at 13866.2 points, and was up more than 1.7% at one point during the session; the ChiNext Index closed up 1.3%, at 3352.1 points, and surged more than 3.5% at one point. In addition, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.35%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index fell 1.01%, and the STAR Market 50 Index fell 1.55%.

Total trading value for A-shares throughout the day was about 2.3 trillion yuan, up by more than 175 billion yuan versus the previous day, and marked the 19th consecutive trading day with trading value exceeding 2 trillion yuan. At the market close, 4786 declining stocks were recorded, including 23 stocks that hit the daily limit down; only 662 stocks advanced, including 39 stocks that hit the daily limit up.

On the trading board, most热门 industry sector板块 fell. Only photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, batteries, and power supply sectors rose, with the photovoltaic equipment sector jumping more than 3%. IT services, communication services, and software development sectors led the declines, falling by 4.68%, 4.64%, and 4.09%, respectively.

Judging from main fund flows, the top three sectors with net inflows were photovoltaic equipment, communication equipment, and batteries, with net inflows of 72.81 billion yuan, 54.39 billion yuan, and 40.91 billion yuan, respectively; the top three sectors with net outflows were IT services, semiconductors, and software development, with net outflows of 71.2 billion yuan, 69.42 billion yuan, and 47.17 billion yuan, respectively.

Behind the sharp rally in the photovoltaic equipment sector, on March 20, media reported that Tesla’s team plans to procure a large scale of Chinese photovoltaic equipment involving several listed companies. As early as early February this year, news that Tesla CEO Elon Musk visited multiple Chinese photovoltaic companies had already drawn widespread attention from the market.

“From the perspective of market sentiment and the capital side, the lack of market absorption capacity is especially prominent at present.” Guo Yiming, chief investment adviser at Jubeng Investment Consulting, told Huaxia Times reporters that during the session the index filled the early-year gap without obstruction, and there was no clear resistance during the process. This phenomenon fully indicates that incremental capital is waiting and watching with heavy sentiment; there is also considerable pressure for capital to exit the market, and the market lacks sufficient buy-side support.

The dual concerns stemming from the Middle East geopolitical crisis and the Fed’s slightly hawkish monetary policy are suppressing global financial market sentiment. Some analysts believe that under the current macro environment, on the one hand global oil prices are high and may push up inflation; on the other hand, a shortage in crude oil supply may also cause interruptions to parts of global industrial chains. The market may worry that the global economy will therefore move downward.

When Will the Stock Market Adjustment End

Market participants generally believe that the subsequent direction of the Middle East situation and changes in expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy path will be key factors in determining how major global stock markets will play out next.

In a research report released on March 19, Xiong Yuan, chief economist at Guosheng Securities, pointed out that this week the Fed, as expected, continued to stand pat and dropped to only 1 person voting against. The meeting also specifically emphasized concern about the Middle East situation, and Powell revealed the possibility of further rate hikes discussed afterward. Looking ahead, in the short term the Fed can only strengthen its wait-and-watch stance amid rising uncertainty, but the market is betting that the U.S. will not cut rates within the year, closely tracking changes in the oil price center and how long high oil prices will last.

Xiong Yuan tends to think: the situation in Iran has been beyond three weeks and there are no signs of rapid easing yet, pointing to energy prices such as crude oil and natural gas remaining at high levels. Under the scenario of “oil prices rising—inflation rising—Fed pausing rate cuts and even possibly hiking—stagnation and inflation risk increasing,” it suggests global liquidity is very likely to gradually tighten and will likely continue to suppress market risk appetite. He advises to be alert to the possibility of a deep stock market adjustment.

The market research department of XinYuan Fund believes that in this round of geopolitical shock, A-shares’ adjustment magnitude is relatively smaller than that of overseas markets and its repair is faster, reflecting a certain level of resilience. But currently the scope of geopolitical risk is broader, oil prices are at a higher level, and the Fed’s stance is relatively firm; therefore, it is difficult for the market in the short term to quickly return to a high risk appetite state. In the next phase, what truly determines whether A-shares can stabilize depends on whether factors such as escalation easing of geopolitical conflicts, an upward lift in the oil price center, a rebound in inflation expectations, and the shifting of Fed rate cuts further into the future show easing and changes.

A research report from Cathay Haitong Securities states that the recent Middle East geopolitical conflict has attracted widespread market attention, and A-share market sentiment is inevitably affected. The impact of this Middle East conflict on various asset classes is similar to the initial phase of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in terms of logic—at the beginning of the conflict, market expectations were insufficient, asset prices saw sharp volatility, and as time passes, the impact will shift from purely price shocks toward the reshaping of industrial chain supply and demand structures.

However, Cathay Haitong Securities believes that the current market adjustment is not caused by a single factor of geopolitical conflict. The seasonal effects brought by the arrival of annual report and quarterly report season overlay with it, jointly pushing the market into a sideways-and-volatility phase. Looking long term, the pattern of A-share bull market remains unchanged, and re-rating of China is still on the way. In the volatile phase, only by staying patient and focusing on core assets—waiting until the disturbance factors become clear and a turning point appears—can investors better seize subsequent investment opportunities.

With the market continuing to fall recently, when can investors start bargain hunting? Guo Yiming believes that bargain hunting requires adhering to the principles of “waiting for the market bottom and waiting for trading volume to expand,” and never bargain hunting blindly to get trapped; in the short term, investors can focus on structural opportunities and prepare for bargain hunting. In the medium and long term, investors need to stay patient, hold core positions, safeguard existing profits, and wait for clearer entry signals. For ordinary investors, the most rational action right now is to control position size and watch rationally, avoiding being swayed by short-term market fluctuations; after the market bottom is confirmed, then gradually increase allocation efforts.

责任编辑：麻晓超 主编：夏申茶