Pendapat: Pembukaan kembali Selat Hormuz akan menyebabkan harga minyak cepat turun kembali ke bawah $100

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Beijing Normal University economics expert and professor Wan Zhe said that in history, the duration and magnitude of oil price increases caused by Middle East conflicts still depend on the development of the geopolitical situation. Based on the current situation, the scale of the supply shock may be larger than before. The supply gap caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could account for 15% to 20% of global supply. Moreover, geopolitical uncertainty is higher; the risk of conflict spillover is still increasing, even with the risk of expanding into a full-scale Middle East conflict. Market panic sentiment is stronger than in past local wars. For future oil prices, if the conflict maintains its current intensity, the Strait of Hormuz remains continuously closed, and the Houthis continue to carry out attacks but the Strait of Mandeb is not completely blockaded, and there is no major diplomatic breakthrough, then it should still stay above 100 dollars. If the Strait of Mandeb is blockaded, with both of the two key corridors interrupted at the same time and the conflict expanding to more countries, then it will definitely continue to rise further. If a major diplomatic breakthrough occurs, the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, and oil prices may quickly fall to below 100 dollars. (CCTV)