Pendapat: Pembukaan kembali Selat Hormuz akan menyebabkan harga minyak cepat turun kembali ke bawah $100

Odaily星球日报讯 Beijing Normal University professor and economics expert Wan Zhe stated that historically, the duration and magnitude of oil price increases triggered by conflicts in the Middle East depend on the development of geopolitical situations.

From the current situation, the scale of supply shocks may exceed previous ones.

The supply gap caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could account for 15% to 20% of global supply.

Moreover, geopolitical uncertainty is higher, and the risk of conflict spillover is still escalating, with even the risk of expanding into a full-scale conflict in the Middle East.

Market panic is stronger than during historical localized wars.

As for future oil prices, if the conflict maintains its current intensity, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the Houthis continue to harass but do not completely blockade the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, with no significant diplomatic breakthroughs, prices should remain above $100.

If the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is blocked and both major corridors are interrupted, and the conflict expands to more countries, prices will definitely continue to rise.

If there is a significant diplomatic breakthrough, and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, oil prices may quickly drop below $100.

（央视）