Peristiwa utama minggu depan di seluruh dunia: Pasukan Houthi bergabung dalam perang AS-Israel-Iran, Powell tampil di kelas ekonomi Harvard

2026年第一个季度即将落下帷幕之际，世界正朝着更深层次的混沌又进一步。

截至发稿时，全球股民期待的中东停火仍没有着落。Israel’s airstrikes against Iran continue relentlessly, and Iran has also launched retaliatory attacks against multiple targets in Israel and Gulf countries, the aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain have reported losses, and a massive fire has also broken out at Kuwait International Airport.

与此同时，the U.S. Marine Expeditionary Force from the Asia-Pacific region has confirmed its arrival in the Middle East waters. The U.S. Central Command stated that in addition to approximately 2,500 Marines, this combat group will also transport and strike fighter jets, as well as amphibious assault forces to the region.

更大的变数在于，the Houthi armed group in Yemen officially joined this month-long conflict over the weekend. According to the organization’s spokesperson Yahya, they have already launched attacks against Israel using “cruise missiles and drones” and “will continue military operations in the coming days.”

这也是去年10月以色列与哈马斯达成停火协议后，胡塞武装首次对以色列发动袭击。目前该组织还未明确表态是否会将打击目标扩大至经由红海南部和曼德海峡的油轮。目前，沙特正通过东西向管道满负荷输送原油至延布港，该港口已经变成稳住全球油价的战略要地。

（这张由行星实验室PBC拍摄的卫星图显示了沙特阿拉伯西部红海港口延布的石油基础设施）

在政治风险咨询公司欧亚集团（Eurasia Group）的最新研报中，分析师们指出，given the ceasefire agreement between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, which has largely been adhered to so far, the group may avoid attacking Saudi oil facilities to maintain their tacit understanding with Saudi Arabia. However, in the event of further escalation, Saudi oil exports remain within the range of Houthi attacks.

自冲突开始后，布伦特原油已经上涨近50%，与之相对的是标普500指数相继失守6900点至6400点之间的所有整数关口。Considering that next weekend the European and American markets will enter the Easter holiday, if the situation in the Middle East does not improve, investors will face the dilemma of whether to “hold stocks over the holiday.”

除了持续牵动市场情绪的中东战争外，下周还有一些经济数据可能会吸引市场的余光。其中，美国的一整套就业数据（下周二JOLTS职位空缺、周三ADP “小非农”、周五非农就业报告）将在能源价格飙涨之际，提供该国劳动力市场的快照。

经济学家目前预计3月非农新增就业岗位为5.6万，失业率将维持在4.4%。在资本市场已经开始为美联储加息定价之际，若非农持续转冷，将加剧美国政策制定者的苦恼。

（美国2月非农就业人数爆冷减少9.2万人，来源：tradingeconomics）

根据美联储的日程表，Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will appear in a class on “Principles of Economics” at Harvard University after the market opens on Monday to participate in a discussion event.

（来源：美联储）

欧元区和欧洲多国也将在下周披露3月CPI初值，展现能源价格飙升的初步影响。

个股层面，下周距离新一轮美股财报季还有两周时间，因此只有耐克、霸王茶姬、味好美等少数知名公司在这个档口披露业绩，作为近期“AI受害股”之一，the financial data platform FactSet will release its earnings report after the market closes on Tuesday.

作为4月初的惯例，automakers such as Tesla will also release their first-quarter delivery data intensively next week. In the “sell-side analyst expectations compilation” released on Thursday, Tesla has already revised down its delivery expectations for 2026 to 1.689 million, down from the previous compilation expectation of 1.75 million announced in the fourth quarter of last year.

下周也是星巴克成立55周年和苹果公司成立50周年的节点，两家公司都会举行庆祝活动。

下周重要财经事件概览（北京时间）

**周一（3月30日）：**美联储主席鲍威尔在哈佛大学出席公开讨论活动、G7财长/能源部长/央行行长举行会议、欧元区3月经济景气指数、日本央行公布3月货币政策会议审议委员意见摘要

**周二（3月31日）：**中国3月官方制造业PMI、欧元区3月CPI初值、美国2月JOLTs职位空缺

**周三（4月1日）：**美国3月ADP就业人数、美国2月零售销售月率、欧元区3月制造业PMI终值

**周四（4月2日）：**美国2月贸易帐、欧洲央行公布经济公报

**周五（4月3日）：**美国3月非农就业报告、欧美交易所因耶稣受难日休市

（文章来源：财联社）