Mengapa dua negara dengan surplus perdagangan terbesar di dunia menghadapi teka-teki nilai tukar

International balance of payments has an identity where the balance of the current account plus the balance of capital and financial accounts equals zero. That is, for a single country, the current account surplus (deficit) = capital and financial account deficit (surplus). From the perspective of global powers, the United States is a typical economy with a surplus in capital and financial accounts, while China and Japan are the top two economies with current account surpluses.

However, Japan and China have maintained a strong external surplus at the current account level for a long time, but this advantage has not naturally translated into a sustained strength of their currencies. On the contrary, at certain stages, both countries have faced noticeable depreciation pressure. This phenomenon indicates that the key factor determining exchange rate trends is not just the scale of the surplus itself, but how the surplus is translated into actual supply and demand in the foreign exchange market.

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