Harga minyak internasional kembali menembus angka 100, harga emas terus melemah! Perbedaan tajam dalam komoditas utama, kinerja keuangan saham emas secara kolektif meledak

International crude oil continues to rise, while international gold prices have fallen again.

International Oil Prices Surge

On March 26, international crude oil continued to rise. As of the time of the report, WTI crude oil futures rose over 3%, trading at $93.63 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures increased by 3.28%, trading at $100.45 per barrel.

In terms of news, according to CCTV News, the Israel Defense Forces announced on March 26 local time that they launched a series of large-scale attacks on infrastructure in Isfahan, Iran. Catalyzed by this news, international oil prices returned to an upward trend.

Several institutions predict that international oil prices will continue to rise. Goldman Sachs pointed out that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz may gradually recover from mid-April, and if upstream disruptions worsen, oil prices may remain above $100 per barrel for the next two years.

Barclays also believes that if the situation drags on until the end of April, the forward price of Brent crude oil for 2026 may be re-priced at $100 per barrel.

Another point of concern is that market fears of soaring oil and natural gas prices are sharply increasing short-term inflation worries. Currently, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year has surpassed the expectations of rate cuts; the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also predicted to raise interest rates multiple times.

International Gold Prices Fall Again

During the trading session on March 26, international gold prices weakened again. COMEX gold fell over 3% at one point, dipping to $4400 per ounce. Spot gold also plummeted, with London gold down nearly 2% during the session, reaching a low of around $4410 per ounce.

Looking at the longer timeline, recently, COMEX gold has continuously lost several important support levels, hitting a low of $4100 per ounce. This week, under the influence of news, it rebounded sharply for two consecutive days. The conflict between market risk aversion and macro pricing mechanisms has led to a “roller coaster” trend in gold prices.

Bosera Funds pointed out that with the escalation of the Middle East situation, transportation in the Strait of Hormuz being disrupted, and risks spilling over in surrounding areas, some funds have begun to prioritize liquidity and asset safety, leading to gold holders selling physical gold at a discount in local markets. Although this type of passive selling may not necessarily indicate a bearish outlook in the medium to long term, it is sufficient to amplify price fluctuations in the short term.

Looking ahead, Founder Securities believes that in the context of rising geopolitical risks and increased demand for safe-haven assets, there is still a possibility for gold prices to rise again towards $5500 per ounce in the short term. In the medium term, gold is likely to show a pattern of strong fluctuations at high levels, with the operational range possibly concentrated between $4750 and $5500 per ounce; in the long term, supported by factors such as a weaker dollar, declining real interest rates, inflows of ETF funds, and increased allocation demand, it still possesses strong strategic allocation value, and in an optimistic scenario, the price center of gold is expected to move further up.

Bank of America noted that before speculative positions are cleared and the macro environment stabilizes, international gold prices may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern. The demand for gold purchases by central banks still has a basis for returning in the medium to long term, but its recovery relies on the easing of geopolitical conflicts and the normalization of energy markets. Until then, the gold market will remain dominated by a liquidity-first logic.

Gold Stocks Collectively Profit

According to statistics from Securities Times·Data Treasure, since the beginning of the year (from February 24 to March 25), financing funds have increased their positions in four gold stocks: Chifeng Jilong Gold, Xiaocheng Technology, Hunan Gold, and Shandong Gold, with net purchases of 172 million yuan, 58.3845 million yuan, 50.5708 million yuan, and 31.6969 million yuan, respectively.

Chifeng Jilong Gold currently operates six gold mines and one polymetallic mine, including the Laos Vientiane mining and Ghana Wassa gold mine located abroad. As of the end of 2025, Chifeng Jilong Gold has a gold resource (GORO) amount of 583 tons, with an average grade of 1.54 grams per ton.

On March 23, before the market opened, Chifeng Jilong Gold and Zijin Mining simultaneously announced that Zijin Mining plans to acquire control of Chifeng Jilong Gold at a total cost of 18.258 billion yuan through acquisitions and private placements.

As of March 26, 10 gold stocks have released performance-related reports for 2025. Based on annual report data or forecast medians, all 10 companies achieved profitability. Zijin Mining led with a net profit of 51.777 billion yuan; followed by Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold, with net profits of 5.1 billion yuan, 4.75 billion yuan, and 3.082 billion yuan, respectively.

Zijin Mining achieved revenue of 349.1 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15%; the parent company’s net profit was 51.777 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.55%, marking the first time it broke the 50 billion yuan mark. The increase in net profit is mainly attributed to the simultaneous rise in product volume and price.

As of the end of 2025, Zijin Mining’s consolidated gold resources (GORO) amount to 4610.48 tons, with gold reserves of 1996.25 tons, and the gold mining capacity for the full year of 2025 is expected to reach 90 tons, which is anticipated to reach 105 tons in 2026.

In terms of net profit changes, gold stocks generally show a significant increase in performance for 2025. Xiaocheng Technology achieved a net profit growth of over 100% for the year, with a year-on-year increase of 136.28%; Sichuan Gold, Western Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Hunan Gold closely follow, with year-on-year profit increases of over 70%.

‍Statement: All information from Data Treasure does not constitute investment advice. The stock market has risks; investment should be cautious.

Proofreading: Pandai