「Stock God」Trump Plays Again, Softens Stance Before 48-Hour Deadline#Gate13周年全球庆典

On March 23, President Trump issued a high-profile 48-hour ultimatum to Iran over the weekend on Truth Social: "If Iran does not completely and without threat open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the U.S. military will strike and completely destroy all of Iran's power plants, starting with the largest one!" This "hardcore" statement quickly drove up global oil prices, with Brent crude surging at one point, market panic sentiment rising, and U.S. stocks coming under pressure. Iran responded firmly, stating that if its energy facilities were targeted, it would retaliate against all U.S. and Israeli energy and water facilities in the Middle East.

However, just before the ultimatum deadline and ahead of U.S. stock market opening on Monday, Trump's stance underwent a dramatic 180-degree reversal: he ordered a halt to bombing Iran's power plants and announced a temporary 5-day ceasefire, leaving a window for negotiations.

This "hard then soft" move instantly reversed market sentiment, with oil prices falling and stocks rebounding. Investors familiar with Trump's style have already summarized this pattern as "TACO trading" (Trump Always Chickens Out). As early as the 2025 tariff war period, this acronym became popular on Wall Street: Trump frequently makes tough statements to create panic and drive down asset prices, followed by "backing down" or delays, triggering rapid market rebounds and profits. The Iran incident is viewed as the latest version of TACO: first applying maximum pressure, causing oil prices/panic assets to skyrocket, then quickly softening, triggering short covering and risk asset rebounds.

Some analysts point out that this "high opening, low close" playbook has become one of the signature styles of Trump's second term, particularly effective when geopolitics and trade negotiations proceed on dual fronts. Currently, the U.S.-Israel war against Iran has entered its 4th week, the Strait of Hormuz remains not fully open, and ground force deployment signs are evident. However, whether Trump's "bombing pause + 5-day ceasefire" is merely another TACO or a genuine shift toward diplomatic resolution requires observation of developments over the next 48 hours.