Badai Harga Minyak Mendekat: UBS Peringatkan Dampak Melampaui Ekspektasi, Bisakah Pelepasan Cadangan Darurat AS 1,72 Juta Barel Menyelamatkan Situasi?

Global energy markets are experiencing a new round of intense turbulence. On one side, international investment bank UBS issues a warning — the current oil price surge could have a far greater impact on the U.S. economy than market expectations; on the other side, the Trump administration is taking continuous actions, releasing strategic petroleum reserves and temporarily waiving sanctions on Iranian oil stranded at sea, attempting to curb rising oil prices with a “combination punch.”

However, is large-scale use of strategic reserves merely a short-term painkiller, or is it a key variable that can truly reverse the trend of oil prices? The market is closely watching.

UBS rings the alarm: the U.S. economy’s “buffer” has been lost

On March 19, UBS released a new research report indicating that the U.S. economy currently faces multiple adverse factors stacking up, and the destructive impact of this round of oil price increases could far exceed that of the previous high oil price cycle.

Looking back at 2011 to 2014, despite international oil prices remaining high for a long period, the U.S. shale oil revolution was in a vigorous expansion phase. Although high oil prices eroded consumer purchasing power, they also spurred investment booms, employment growth, and industrial output in the shale oil sector, forming an effective economic hedge. However, after 2014, U.S. investment in shale oil sharply contracted, and this “buffer” has essentially disappeared.

UBS further points out that the macro environment of the current U.S. economy differs from the previous high oil price cycle in three key ways:

• The labor market is weaker. Compared to the employment boom from 2011 to 2014, the current U.S. employment market shows significantly less vitality, and the economy’s ability to absorb external shocks has diminished.

• Household resilience has narrowed. After pandemic-related savings depletion and debt accumulation in a high-interest-rate environment, U.S. households’ financial resilience against external shocks like rising oil prices has greatly decreased.

• Inflation transmission is stronger. Rapid oil price increases transmit more sharply through the overall price level, compounded by rising costs of food and other living expenses, leading to more intense inflation shocks.

Based on this, UBS judges that the current oil price rise could drag down U.S. economic growth far more than market expectations.

U.S. government strikes “combination punches”: releasing reserves and waivers in tandem

In response to rising oil prices, the Trump administration has acted swiftly.

On March 20, the U.S. Department of the Treasury approved a 30-day temporary authorization allowing the delivery and sale of ships currently stranded at sea loaded with Iranian crude oil and petroleum products. Treasury Secretary Yellen emphasized that this authorization is “narrow in scope, targeted at specific situations, and short-term,” strictly limited to oil already in transit, and does not permit new purchases or production activities. Yellen estimates this move will quickly inject about 140 million barrels of oil into the global market.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Energy confirmed that, as part of the coordinated global effort led by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. plans to release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), with an initial release of about 45 million barrels. At the planned release rate, the entire process is expected to last about 120 days.

Notably, the IEA coordinated the collective release of 400 million barrels from its 32 member countries, setting a record for the largest collective release in the organization’s history, far exceeding the approximately 183 million barrels released during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.

What is the impact of reserve releases? Short-term effectiveness, long-term concerns emerge

From market reactions and historical experience, large-scale releases of strategic reserves show clear “timeliness” and “structural” characteristics.

In the short term, reserve releases can ease tightness in the spot market and lower near-month futures prices. Data shows traders have begun selling near-month crude oil and buying longer-dated contracts, with futures curves showing “backwardation,” reflecting market expectations of increased short-term supply.

In the medium term, geopolitical risks remain dominant. Similar to 2022, reserve releases can only hedge part of supply gaps and are unlikely to fundamentally reverse price trends. Currently, disruptions in Middle Eastern supply are larger, and risks in key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz persist, with energy facilities themselves becoming targets in conflicts. Until these uncertainties subside, oil prices are likely to remain highly volatile.

In the long term, continuous reserve releases will significantly weaken the U.S.'s future ability to respond to energy crises. The U.S. SPR has a total capacity of about 700 million barrels, but after multiple large-scale withdrawals in recent years, inventories are at historic lows. After this release of 172 million barrels, total SPR stocks will drop to about 244 million barrels, below the statutory red line of 252 million barrels. Considering the structural requirement to retain 150-160 million barrels in salt caverns for safety, even if the red line is breached, further release space is less than 90 million barrels.

More critically, this round of releases is not just simple “selling”; it resembles a “lending mechanism” — companies obtain crude oil now and are required to return it in the future, possibly with interest. This means the government will need to replenish inventories at higher prices later, increasing fiscal burdens.

UBS’s warning and the U.S. government’s emergency actions together sketch a tense picture of the current global energy market: on one hand, rising oil prices are exerting stronger pressure on the “buffer” that the U.S. economy has lost; on the other hand, whether through releasing strategic reserves or waiving sanctions on Iranian oil, these are more stopgap measures than fundamental solutions. The ongoing depletion of strategic reserves is eroding the U.S.'s future policy space, and the trajectory of geopolitical conflicts remains the key variable determining the final direction of oil prices. For global investors and policymakers, this energy game is far from over.