3.19 Thursday Midday Market Analysis

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the early morning policy meeting, keeping the rate range at 3.5%-3.75%, a result basically in line with market expectations. The key focus is that the latest dot plot still shows only one rate cut expected within the year, while inflation forecasts were raised, indicating that the Fed remains highly vigilant about rising energy prices, geopolitical risks, and U.S. inflation persistence.

Powell's speech was overall neutral with a slightly hawkish tilt. He did not release clear interest rate cut timing, but repeatedly emphasized "still need to wait for more data confirmation," particularly mentioning that recent oil price increases could push inflation higher again, meaning near-term liquidity easing expectations are being suppressed. Markets originally anticipated more dovish signals, but after the speech, the dollar and Treasury yields strengthened, with risk asset sentiment clearly cooling.

For the crypto space, this "holding steady but not ready to pivot toward easing" stance will keep Bitcoin and Ethereum under pressure in the short term. Bitcoin retreated after the news, indicating that overhead capital is realizing profits, with short-term likely continuing to oscillate around sentiment; Ethereum, having greater volatility elasticity, typically faces stronger selling pressure than BTC. If markets fail to quickly reclaim key resistance levels, it will likely continue with a wash-out pattern before choosing direction, but in the medium term, as long as rate cut expectations are not completely broken, pullbacks will still present opportunities for capital to flow back in.

BTC Operating Suggestion: Oscillation range 70700-71500, execute high sells and low buys
ETH Operating Suggestion: Oscillation range 2160-2230, execute high sells and low buys