Nilai tukar Renminbi terhadap Dolar AS menembus angka 7! Bagaimana sebaiknya investor memandang tren tahun 2026?

Rmb to USD exchange rate has shown impressive performance recently. On December 25, USD/CNH fell to 6.9965, marking a new low since September 2024; USD/CNY even dropped to 7.0051, refreshing the lowest record since May 2023. The breakthrough of this important level signals that the RMB appreciation trend is gradually strengthening.

Three forces behind the changes in RMB to USD exchange rate

Current RMB appreciation is not accidental. Market analysis suggests that this appreciation wave is driven by three major factors.

First is the weakness of the dollar itself. Driven by the Federal Reserve’s continued rate cuts and the global de-dollarization wave, the dollar index has fallen more than 10% cumulatively this year, with declines exceeding 2% in the past month. Dollar depreciation directly benefits RMB exchange rate performance.

Second is the central bank’s policy orientation. China’s central bank has been continuously raising the RMB exchange rate midpoint throughout the year. By continuously raising the official reference rate, it guides market expectations of RMB appreciation. This steady policy support creates an institutional environment for RMB appreciation.

The third driving force comes from year-end settlement effects. As 2025 trade surplus continues to accumulate, companies conduct large-scale settlement operations near year-end. This seasonal foreign exchange conversion demand further pushes up the RMB exchange rate.

Orient Credit’s chief macro analyst points out that dollar weakness and seasonal foreign exchange settlement by exporters jointly drive RMB appreciation. More importantly, sustained RMB appreciation is expected to attract more foreign capital inflows into China’s capital markets, enhancing market international competitiveness.

Institutional divergence in expectations for RMB to USD exchange rate in 2026

Although RMB appreciation momentum is strong at present, different institutions show clear divergence regarding the 2026 outlook.

From a fundamentals perspective, most analysts believe RMB still has room for appreciation. Based on trade-weighted assessment and China’s inflation situation, the RMB exchange rate is severely undervalued, providing a foundation for further appreciation.

Goldman Sachs holds the most aggressive view. The institution believes RMB is undervalued relative to economic fundamentals by 25%, predicting that USD/CNY will drop to 6.90 by mid-2026, further falling to 6.85 by year-end.

Bank of America is more optimistic about RMB appreciation. Considering that improved US-China tensions have improved exporters’ prospects, the bank predicts that the scale of dollar sales by Chinese exporters in 2026 will expand, ultimately forecasting USD/CNY dropping to 6.80 at year-end.

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group adopted a relatively conservative stance, believing that USD/CNY will maintain oscillations within the 6.95-7.00 range in the first half of 2026, implying that the exchange rate may face certain adjustment pressure.

Overall, whether from aggressive or conservative camps, institutions generally show optimism about continued RMB appreciation in 2026, bringing relatively favorable expectations for RMB to USD investors.