Outlook on the Technological Development Roadmap of Ethereum for the Next Two Years

Ethereum, as a leading smart contract platform, has attracted significant attention regarding its technological development. According to the recently disclosed roadmap, Ethereum is set to achieve several important technological breakthroughs in the next two years, which are expected to bring significant enhancements to its ecosystem. This article will explore several key technological directions and their potential impacts.

zkEVM integrated into the mainnet

It is expected that from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, Ethereum will complete the deployment of zkEVM (Zero-Knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine) on the mainnet. This technology aims to significantly improve transaction verification speed, with a goal of enabling 99% of blocks to be verified within 10 seconds, while also reducing the verification cost of zero-knowledge proofs by 80%.

This progress is of great significance. First, it will enhance the appeal of the Ethereum main chain for stablecoins, potentially leading to a further increase in the market share of major stablecoins on Ethereum. This will directly drive up daily Gas consumption, accelerating the deflationary trend of ETH. Second, zkEVM technology provides better privacy protection and compliance for traditional financial institutions, and is expected to activate large-scale institutional-grade DeFi application scenarios.

RISC-V Execution Architecture Upgrade

Starting from the second half of 2025, Ethereum will initiate the research and development of the RISC-V execution architecture, with phased implementation expected between 2026 and 2030. The main goals of this technology upgrade include:

• Improve the execution efficiency of smart contracts by 3-5 times.
• Gas costs reduced by 50-70%
• Replace the current EVM with an open-source instruction set architecture for better compatibility with modern hardware acceleration technologies.

This transformation will bring significant performance improvements to Ethereum, potentially giving rise to new application scenarios such as high-frequency trading, real-time gaming, AI inference, and micropayments. Lower gas costs will also reactivate small transactions, expand the user base and usage frequency, creating a virtuous cycle of ETH demand.

Ecosystem Collaboration between the Main Chain and Layer Two Networks

Starting from the fourth quarter of 2025, Ethereum will focus on achieving seamless interoperability between the main chain (Layer 1) and the major Layer 2 networks. This work is expected to continue until 2026-2027. The main objectives include:

• Achieve seamless interoperability between L1 and major L2 networks
• Integrate the currently fragmented total locked value (TVL) of approximately 120 billion USD, creating a unified liquidity pool, with the TVL expected to exceed 200 billion USD.
• Reduce cross-layer transaction costs by 90%, achieving cross-layer confirmation within 10 seconds.

This progress will enable DeFi protocols to more efficiently aggregate liquidity across the entire ecosystem, generating powerful network effects and significantly enhancing the capital efficiency and user experience of the Ethereum ecosystem.

Optimizing the Validator Economic Model

Starting from the second half of 2025, Ethereum will optimize the economic model for validators. This work will be carried out in sync with other technological upgrades and is expected to last for two years. The main objectives include:

• Gradually lower the minimum staking threshold for validators from the current 32 Ether to 16 Ether, and it may eventually be reduced to 1 Ether.
• Increase the annualized staking yield from the current 4-6% to 6-8%
• Simplified validator operation requirements, supporting lightweight node verification, enhancing the degree of decentralization of the network.

These improvements are expected to raise the ETH staking rate from the current approximately 25% to over 40%, meaning that about 48 million ETH may be locked, further reducing the circulating supply and reinforcing deflationary expectations. At the same time, the increase in staking rewards will enhance the appeal of ETH as a "digital bond," providing a more solid fundamental support for its valuation.

Reintroduction of Sharding Technology (ETH 3.0)

Although the time is quite distant, the Ethereum team plans to design and develop new sharding technology starting in 2026, potentially achieving it in 2027-2028 or further in the future. This technology is seen as a core component of ETH 3.0, with main objectives including:

• Combining zkEVM and sharding technology to achieve millions of transactions per second processing capability.
• Reduce data availability costs by 99%
• By dispersing blockchain data into multiple shards, validators only need to process a portion of the data.

The reintroduction of sharding technology indicates that Ethereum is preparing for the large-scale adoption of Web3 in the next decade, and the vision of the "world computer" is expected to be back on the agenda.

Overall, these technological breakthroughs will significantly enhance the performance, security, and scalability of Ethereum, laying a solid foundation for the continued development and value growth of its ecosystem.