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After experiencing a period of peaceful time away from social media, I conducted an in-depth analysis and reflection on the recent dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. This market change has shown some unique characteristics that are worth exploring further.
Over the past two and a half years, we have witnessed an extraordinary bull market. Bitcoin has surged from $15,000 to $120,000, a phenomenon that is particularly noteworthy during the current economic tightening cycle.
By delving into this round of the bull market, we can discover its unique features. Setting aside some temporary hotspots caused by rebounds from early overselling, as well as the speculative MEME coin craze that arose in the mid-term due to insufficient liquidity, overall, this bull market lacks an exciting core narrative. From a more macro perspective, this is actually a 'capital bull market' dominated by American capital.
A notable feature of this bull market is that during each small-scale trend, altcoins often show a rebound after being oversold, while Bitcoin maintains a steady rise, highlighting its position as the market leader.
Ethereum's performance is also worth noting, rising from $1300 to $3800. Analyzing the logic behind its surge, we can find that it has, to some extent, replicated the pattern of Bitcoin.
Reviewing the various stages of the Bitcoin bull market: the rebound from $15,476 to $30,000 is after the bear market, while the rise from $30,000 to $120,000 is the result of multiple factors working together, including expectations of interest rate cuts, ETF expectations, and capital inflows after its approval.
It is worth noting that after Bitcoin broke through $30,000 in October 2023, the market faced numerous challenges, such as Japan's interest rate issues and geopolitical conflicts. These factors have affected the market trends to some extent, but have not changed the overall upward trend.
The development process of this bull market has provided us with valuable experiences and lessons. It demonstrates how the cryptocurrency market evolves and adapts in the complex and ever-changing global economic environment. In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of global capital flows, policy changes, and technological innovations on the market, in order to better grasp the development direction of the cryptocurrency market.