2025/7/6 #BTC# $BTC Current trend assessment: pullback phase in the short-term rise trend

Core Indicator Analysis:
1. Price and EMA:
The latest closing price of 108,045.77 is higher than the EMA fast line (108,153.44) and the EMA slow line (108,125.15), but the gap between the two has narrowed to 28.29, indicating a weakening of the pump momentum.
The EMA fast line is still above the slow line, maintaining a bullish arrangement but narrowing.
2. MACD Indicator:
The MACD histogram has been negative for 8 consecutive periods (-88.98), but the magnitude of the negative value is decreasing.
DIF(28.29) and DEA(117.27) continue to decline, showing a decrease in rise momentum.
Signs of bottom divergence appear: when the price reaches a new high, MACD fails to synchronize with the new high.
3. Trading Volume Characteristics:
On July 2, there was a massive pump of (618M) followed by a continuous pullback.
Recently, the trading volume in the last 3 cycles has dropped to the range of 50-78M (below the recent average).
4. RSI Series Indicators:
RSI(49.09) is in the neutral zone, with no overbought or oversold signals.
StochRSI(30.34) has rebounded from the oversold zone, but the K value(32.76) is still below the D value(30.34)
Key Turning Point Observation:
On July 2 at 12:00, a breakthrough pump occurred (108,737→109,676)
On July 4th at 12:00, it broke through the key support of 108,000 with a large volume drop.
The current price is fluctuating in the range of 107,800-108,200.
Long and short power comparison:
Bullish advantage: EMA is still in a bullish arrangement, the breakout pattern on July 2 has not been completely destroyed.
Bearish pressure: MACD continues to weaken, and the trading volume during the rebound is insufficient.
Trading suggestions:
1. Key support level: 107,800 (recently tested low multiple times)
2. Key resistance level: 108,500 (previous high area)
3. If the volume breaks through 108,500, it will confirm the continuation of the rise trend.
4. If it falls below 107,500, it may turn into a downward trend.
The current market is in the pullback phase after the breakout, and it is recommended to wait for clearer directional signals. In the short term, it may maintain a range of 107,800-108,500 with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to changes in trading volume and the situation of key level breakouts.